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BHP Group (ASX:BHP) is in the spotlight after a series of leadership changes, capped by the retirement of Executive Director Mike Henry on June 30, 2026, and a reshaped executive team.
See our latest analysis for BHP Group.
BHP Group's share price has eased in the short term, with a 7 day share price return of 4.53% and a 30 day return of 5.34%. However, the year to date share price return of 24.28% and 1 year total shareholder return of 54.67% indicate that momentum has been strong as leadership changes take place and major copper growth projects such as Escondida progress.
If you are comparing BHP Group with other large resource producers, it can help to see what else is moving in the copper space via our screener of 8 top copper producer stocks
After BHP Group's strong 1 year return and fresh copper projects clearing early hurdles, it is fair to ask whether the share price already reflects the new leadership and growth pipeline or if some upside could still be on the table.
Most Popular Narrative: 53.2% Undervalued
According to a widely followed narrative by Mason_ng, BHP Group's fair value of A$121.48 sits well above the last close of A$56.87. This frames the leadership changes against a backdrop of a stock priced far below that narrative estimate.
BHP Group is one of the world's largest mining companies, producing key commodities such as iron ore, copper, and metallurgical coal that are essential for global infrastructure, steel production, and the energy transition. In FY2024, BHP reported revenue of approximately US$55.7 billion and underlying attributable profit of US$13.7 billion, highlighting the company's strong profitability and scale in global resource markets.
Curious what assumptions could justify a fair value more than double the current A$56.87 share price? The narrative focuses on BHP Group's scale, cash generation, and exposure to electrification metals. The real drivers are found in how margins, volumes, and future profit multiples are combined behind that single A$121.48 figure.
Result: Fair Value of A$121.48 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, there are still clear risks for BHP Group, including exposure to commodity price swings and the possibility that a slowdown in key markets such as China could affect demand.
Another View on BHP Group's Valuation
The user narrative argues that BHP Group is significantly undervalued at A$56.87 versus a fair value of A$121.48, but the market price is also linked to earnings multiples. On a P/E of 19.6x, BHP trades well above the Australian Metals and Mining industry at 11.1x and slightly above its own fair ratio of 19.4x, which points to a richer price and less of a clear bargain. So, is the market already pricing in much of the story you are hoping to benefit from?
See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
Next Steps
With BHP Group's mix of strong returns and active debate around valuation, it makes sense to look under the hood yourself and move quickly from headlines to hard numbers by weighing the 1 key reward and 1 important warning sign highlighted in the 1 key reward and 1 important warning sign.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include BHP.AX .
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