There's been a notable change in appetite for Bilfinger SE( ETR:GBF ) shares in the week since its first-quarter report, with the stock down 14% to €85.85. It was a pretty mixed result, with revenues beating expectations to hit €1.3b. Statutory earnings fell 7.1% short of analyst forecasts, reaching €0.99 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
After the latest results, the four analysts covering Bilfinger are now predicting revenues of €5.69b in 2026. If met, this would reflect a credible 3.9% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to leap 21% to €5.95. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €5.70b and earnings per share (EPS) of €6.19 in 2026. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.
Check out our latest analysis for Bilfinger
The consensus price target held steady at €121, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Bilfinger at €132 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €107. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Bilfinger's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 5.2% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 9.3% over the past five years. Compare this to the 17 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.6% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Bilfinger is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. The consensus price target held steady at €121, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Bilfinger going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for Bilfinger that we have uncovered.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature.
We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice.
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