Key Takeaways
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Bloom Energy rose 2% today as AI stocks, AMD among them, bounced back from Thursday's post-midterm selloff.
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Bloom had just landed a 900-megawatt NTT DATA deal and a 1-gigawatt plan with California Resources.
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Analysts expect Bloom's normalized EPS to climb from $0.76 in 2025 to $8.24 in 2028. Slower US data-center building is the main risk.
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Oracle's Dec. 10 report and GE Vernova's turbine orders are the next reads on that demand.
Bloom Energy ( BE:NYSE )is up 2% today as AI and data-center stocks bounce back from Thursday's rout after Democrats won control of Congress. Advanced Micro Devices ( AMD:NASDAQ )is up 8%.
Bloom fell 16% on Thursday after a week of new demand. It got a 900-megawatt deal with NTT DATA and a plan with California Resources (CRC) for 1 gigawatt or more of fuel cells, on top of its 2.8-gigawatt Oracle ( ORCL:NYSE )deal. GE Vernova ( GEV:NYSE ), which sells turbines into the same buildout, reported third-quarter orders up 96% organically.
The fear is about 2028
UBS analysts estimate construction pauses could put about 30% of the US data-center capacity expected in 2028 at risk. Bloom made 97% of its third-quarter revenue in the US.
AMD fell 17% on Thursday even though its third-quarter revenue rose 45% to $13.4 billion, with data-center sales up 97%, and CEO Lisa Su expects growth "to accelerate further in the fourth quarter."
Bloom's earnings are still headed up
Analysts expect Bloom's normalized EPS to grow more than tenfold from 2025 to 2028:
Yet at Thursday's close Bloom traded at about 40x forward earnings, against a one-year average of 112x.
TIKR tracks 29 analysts on Bloom Energy. How many say "Buy"?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Bloom Energy, along with Wall Street's revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Bloom Energy's Analyst Ratings
Oracle is the one to watch
Oracle's free cash flow was negative $5 billion in its quarter ended Aug. 31 as it builds data centers. Its Dec. 10 report will show whether it's sticking with that spending, and the 2.8 gigawatts Bloom is counting on.
GE Vernova's backlog hit $197 billion, and CEO Scott Strazik said on its third-quarter call that it's taking gas turbine reservations for delivery in 2032. Every year a data center waits for a turbine is another year Bloom can pitch power in about 90 days.
California Resources' plan is a non-binding memorandum of understanding that still needs contracts, a final investment decision and EPA permits. Its 2027 budget, out with its fourth-quarter results, will show whether it's funding the project.
The bounce has room to run
Investors sold Bloom as though the election cancelled its orders, but no customer has announced a pullback. With estimates rising and the stock far below its usual multiple, I think today's bounce has room to run.
Of course, if Congress or the states slow data-center permits, those 2028 estimates would come down first.
So what is Bloom Energy stock actually worth?
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