Quick Read
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Palantir shares fell 3.2% while SPY gained 10.1% over the measured year, despite a 29.5% single-day pop after second-quarter earnings.
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U.S. commercial revenue surged 148% to $984 million in Q3, surpassing government revenue for the first time as Palantir beat earnings estimates.
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At 157 times earnings with a 0.51% free cash flow yield, Palantir's stretched valuation keeps Burry's core concern valid despite accelerating business growth.
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A year ago, Michael Burry disclosed put options against Palantir Technologies( NASDAQ:PLTR ) and Nvidia( NASDAQ:NVDA ). Palantir CEO Alex Karp responded in a TV interview by calling the short "bat-crazy," while Wedbush's Dan Ives said Burry was "dead wrong." Our November 12, 2025, analysis argued that a valid valuation concern can still produce a dangerous short position if the timing is off. Palantir's third-quarter report on November 2, 2026, now acts as the tiebreaker.
Palantir Made a Wild Round Trip and Still Trailed the Market
Between November 12, 2025, and the November 2, 2026, close, Palantir shares fell 3.2%, from $184.17 to $178.34. Over the same stretch, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust( NYSEARCA:SPY ) gained 10.1%. Palantir shares closed at $125.65 just before the second-quarter report, then jumped 29.5% on earnings day and reached $198.84 by October 26. The stock is up 6.2% year to date but down 13.9% over one year, while SPY is up 10.1% over both periods.
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Burry Changed Tactics as Palantir Sped Up
Burry closed Scion Asset Management last year. In September, he sold his December 2026 Palantir puts but kept short positions in the stock (per our October 26 coverage). Meanwhile, Palantir raised its full-year revenue guidance from an initial $7.182 billion to $7.198 billion all the way to $8.530 billion to $8.534 billion. In May, Karp placed Palantir among an elite group: "We have shattered the metric, a feat matched only by other fellow AI infrastructure companies: Nvidia, Micron, and SK hynix."
Software peer Snowflake( NYSE:SNOW ) grew product revenue 37% and guided to a non-GAAP operating margin of 14.5% for the year. Palantir's comparable figures were 96% revenue growth and a 62% adjusted operating margin.
Third-Quarter Results Handed Karp the Fundamentals
Revenue came in at $2.313 billion, ahead of the $2.181 billion estimate. Adjusted EPS of $0.44 beat the $0.41 consensus. U.S. commercial revenue rose 148% to $984 million, surpassing U.S. government revenue of $953 million for the first time. Adjusted free cash flow guidance rose to $4.8 billion to $5.0 billion. Karp said, "The Sovereign AI movement is imposing the most dramatic dichotomy between haves and have-nots that I have witnessed in 30 years of business."
Even with the beat, CNBC reported shares slid in premarket trading. There were soft spots: total contract value grew just 6%, and stock-based compensation rose to $318.9 million from $172.3 million.
Valuation Keeps Burry's Case Alive
Palantir has a market cap of roughly $429 billion. It trades at 157 times earnings and 140 times free cash flow, and its free cash flow yield is just 0.51%. Those multiples back up the core of Burry's doubt, and a year of falling behind the S&P 500 gives it some support.
Who Won: Karp on Business Results, Nobody Outright on the Stock
Karp clearly won the argument on business fundamentals. Growth sped up every quarter, and U.S. commercial revenue went from secondary to main engine. Burry's valuation critique also still carries weight, since the stock fell behind the benchmark despite those results. August's one-day jump showed how fast a short position can turn painful, even when the valuation case is sound. Next, keep an eye on whether Palantir meets its fourth-quarter revenue guidance of $2.649 billion to $2.653 billion and whether contract value growth picks up again.
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