For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.
First Solar (FSLR) stock has fallen 45.2% from its June 2026 high. It lost 27.8% over the past twelve months, while the S&P 500 returned 11.3%. At the October 30 close, buyers pay 10.1 times the company's earnings , against 22.6 times for the S&P 500. That price appears to assume today's profits will not last. After a fall this deep, is it still too early to buy?
How Cheap Is First Solar Stock After The Fall?
Valued on earnings, First Solar stock is cheaper now than at the end of any September from 2021 to 2025. It traded at 16.9 times earnings in September 2025 and at 21.4 times in September 2024. Those earnings, however, come at an operating margin of 38% over the last twelve months, higher than at any earlier quarter end since late 2016. Management said third-quarter gross margin was about 58%, up roughly 20 percentage points from a year earlier, driven mainly by a higher mix of U.S.-produced modules. The low multiple is a bargain only if margins that high last.
Cash tells a different story from earnings . First Solar's operating cash flow was negative in each of the first three quarters of 2026. Valued on cash, the stock costs 22.3 times, against 15.2 times for the S&P 500. That multiple reflects the past twelve months, a period that includes $1.24 billion of operating cash flow in the fourth quarter of 2025. Management's capital plan is built around cash. As set out in February, its first priority is to keep net cash between $1.5 billion and $2 billion. Net cash was about $1.5 billion when the third quarter closed, management said, at the bottom of that range. With those results, the board also authorized a share buyback of up to $500 million.
What First Solar Expects For 2026
First Solar has cut its 2026 sales forecast but kept its gross profit forecast. On October 29, management lowered its 2026 sales guidance to a midpoint of $4.75 billion from $5.05 billion, while holding its gross profit guidance at a $2.5 billion midpoint. Third-quarter sales were already down 22.8% from a year earlier, mainly because the company sold fewer modules to third parties.
Management said First Solar has raised its prices since the Section 232 proclamation in August, and the company ended the third quarter with about $13.5 billion of contracted sales. Yet customers are deferring orders for early-stage projects that need modules later in the decade, management also said.
When Does First Solar Report Next?
First Solar is expected to report its fourth-quarter 2026 results in February 2027. The shares have moved sharply in both directions following recent reports. In the two trading days after each of the five reports before October 29, stock moves ranged from a 17.7% fall after the February 2026 report to a 13.8% rise after the October 2025 report. In the one trading day after the October 29 report, the stock fell 1.4%. A buyer now also takes on market risk. During the 2025 US Tariff Shock, between February and June 2025, First Solar fell as much as 26.0% from its high, against 19.0% for the S&P 500.
The number to watch is fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA, management's own profit measure. Management guided that figure at $643 million to $843 million, against the $744 million reported for the third quarter. The $743 million middle of that range is about the third quarter's level. A result near the bottom would show profit falling, and buying now would prove early. A result near the top would show profit still growing, and a buyer who waits for February would be buying after that is known.
How To Act On FSLR?
Now you know First Solar better. Our purpose is to inform you so you can decide for yourself, and acting on one stock, in either direction, carries its own risk.
If you would rather own a portfolio built to spread that risk, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio holds 30 quality companies in equal weight. Since its inception in September 2020 it has returned 105%, ahead of a benchmark that combines the S&P 500, S&P Mid-cap and Russell 2000.
See How The HQ Portfolio Works
Spot an error or want more like this? Tell us in 10 seconds .
