Quick Read
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Costco (COST) earns a BUY rating with a $1,098 price target, backed by 6 consecutive EPS beats and 10% revenue growth to $303 billion.
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Walmart (WMT) trades near 45x earnings despite only 6% revenue growth, making Costco's premium valuation look reasonable by comparison.
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Building a portfolio and living off one are two completely different skills, and almost nobody teaches the second. This problem is what The Definitive Guide to Retirement Income helps, and it is free today. Read more here. (Sponsor)
The 24/7 Wall St. price target for Costco( NASDAQ:COST ) is $1,098.23. That represents 7.75% upside from the $1,019.26 close. The stock earns a buy rating with 90% confidence.
24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary
| Metric |
Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price |
$1,019.26 |
| The 24/7 Wall St. Price Target |
$1,098.23 |
| Upside/Downside |
7.75% |
| Recommendation |
BUY |
| Confidence Level |
90% |
Costco has now beaten EPS estimates 6 consecutive quarters. Fiscal 2026 revenue grew 10.14% to $303.15 billion. Our model treats that earnings consistency as the variable most likely to drive the next move. Confidence is high because the trailing, forward and analyst-based valuations group tightly together.
Six Straight Beats Fuel a 20% Year-to-Date Run
Shares rose 4.27% over the past week, 12.37% over the past month and 20.49% year to date. At the latest close, the stock sits about 6.8% below its 52-week high of $1,093.14 and roughly 21.5% above its $839.11 low.
The fiscal fourth quarter, reported September 24, set the tone. EPS of $6.75 beat the $6.53 estimate. Revenue of $95.72 billion topped the $94.85 billion estimate and rose 11.1%. Excluding a $0.15 nonrecurring tariff refund benefit, EPS still grew 12.4%.
Digitally enabled comparable sales rose 19.5% as DoorDash( NASDAQ:DASH ) and Uber Eats delivery from Uber( NYSE:UBER ) expanded nationwide. The stock gained 7.52% in the 30 days after that report.
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Why Bulls See $1,162 Within Reach
The bull case reaches $1,162.37. Membership quality drives it. Paid executive members reached 42.3 million, up 9.4%, and the U.S. and Canada renewal rate hit 92.3%. Management plans 33 openings in fiscal 2027, while the SG&A rate fell to 8.94% from 9.21%.
On the call, then-CFO Gary Millerchip pointed to "record high executive penetration, guest engagement, and digital engagement" as signs of loyalty. Analysts lean bullish, with 4 Strong Buy and 20 Buy ratings and a consensus target of $1,067.59.
What Could Stall the Rally
The bear case sits at $995.32. Valuation is the pressure point, with a trailing P/E of 49 and a PEG ratio of 5.07. After the fiscal Q2 2025 miss, shares fell 6.07% on earnings day.
Total paid members grew only 3.8%, and capex is set to rise to about $7.5 billion. Management expects capex growth to slow after fiscal 2027. That spending also funds the warehouse pipeline that creates future fee income.
How Costco Compares to Walmart and BJ's
Walmart( NASDAQ:WMT ) is the biggest scale rival, and its Sam's Club unit competes directly for warehouse members. Walmart trades near 45x earnings, a smaller premium than Costco's, but its latest revenue grew only 5.94%.
BJ's Wholesale Club( NYSE:BJ ) is the closest pure-play club. It beat EPS estimates by 16.52%, but its comparable sales excluding gas rose just 3.1%.
| Company |
Latest Quarter Revenue Growth |
Membership Fee Growth |
|---|---|---|
| Costco |
11.1% |
7.3% |
| Walmart |
5.94% |
17% |
| BJ's |
15.73% |
9.9% |
Walmart's high multiple, despite slower sales growth, suggests the 24/7 Wall St. price target is reasonable.
Earnings Momentum Tips the Scale Toward Buy
The 24/7 Wall St. price target of $1,098.23 supports a buy at 90% confidence. Steady double-digit earnings growth is what underpins the call.
The bull thesis strengthens if comparable sales excluding gas stay in the 6% to 7% range. The thesis weakens if membership growth slows further. Until that happens, the earnings case remains intact.
Costco Price Prediction 2026-2030
This is where the model projects Costco could trade if current trends hold.
| Year |
The 24/7 Wall St. Price Target |
|---|---|
| 2026 |
$1,029.40 |
| 2027 |
$1,098.23 |
| 2028 |
$1,165.48 |
| 2029 |
$1,256.10 |
| 2030 |
$1,294.14 |
These estimates rest on Costco continuing to execute on warehouse growth and membership. Faster openings in Asia could push results above these targets, while slower membership additions could pull them below.
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