Quick Read
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Musk predicted Tesla (TSLA) will capture "a majority of all passenger miles on Earth" where allowed, but the stock already trades at roughly 402 times earnings.
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Uber (UBER) is down 27% over the past year and trading near its 52-week low, with driverless rides still under 0.5% of its 300 million weekly trips.
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An analyst on Tesla's( NASDAQ:TSLA ) third-quarter call on October 21, 2026, said the company appears to be "pricing lower than competitor Rideshare and other Robotaxi players in most markets." Chief executive Elon Musk replied that Tesla will "end up doing a majority of all passenger miles on Earth in any country where it is allowed to operate freely."
He gave no timeline, though he added a caveat: "unless we are stopped by governments, which is certainly a possibility." He also said he was confident in the prediction and invited people to check it later.
Tesla closed the regular session at $386.47, up 3.41%. By 7:59 PM ET, it had dropped to $373.65 in after-hours trading, down 3.32%. With the company valued at $1.53 trillion, the question for shareholders is how much of this vision the price already includes.
Nearly Two Million Miles Against Billions of Trips
Tesla's robotaxi fleet has driven nearly two million cumulative unsupervised miles. That total grew eightfold during the quarter, and the service runs in Austin from 6 a.m. to midnight.
Global passenger miles include private cars, taxis, buses, and trains. Uber( NYSE:UBER ) alone handled 3.9 billion trips in its second quarter, so Tesla's entire unsupervised history is a small fraction of one competitor's three months of activity.
Ashok Elluswamy, who leads AI at Tesla, said the company sees "a clear path towards scaling to millions of vehicles for the next several months." A forecast about vehicle counts does not prove anything about miles driven, and the call gave no market-share target.
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Tesla's Cost Case Rests on a Goal It Has Not Hit
Management argued that a rideshare car has a driver, "and we don't." Tesla also builds its own cars, and Musk said the aim is "to take over any kind of transportation."
CFO Vaibhav Taneja said Tesla has not yet reached its $0.30 per-mile goal for paid robotaxi miles, though he sees a path to it. The call did not say whether that number is a cost, a price, or a margin, so you cannot yet compare it with ride-hailing economics.
Why "Allowed to Operate Freely" Matters Most
Musk named the biggest risk himself, because a robotaxi needs city and state permits and approval from federal safety regulators at home. Abroad, it needs sign-off country by country, and some governments will protect their domestic automakers.
Elluswamy said the remaining obstacles could become regulatory "perhaps in Q1, Q2 timeframes." Because the prediction applies only where Tesla can operate "freely," much of the world may fall outside it.
Ride-Hailing Stocks Fell Before Musk Spoke
Uber slipped 1.91% to $67.62, and Lyft( NASDAQ:LYFT ) fell 2.67% to $16.79. Both moves happened during the regular session, before the call. Uber was unchanged after hours.
Uber trades close to its 52-week low of $65.41, well below its high of $100.35. The stock is down 27.31% over the past year and 17.24% year to date.
Uber is approaching autonomy through partners, including Waymo, Wayve, Baidu( NASDAQ:BIDU ) and Pony.ai( NASDAQ:PONY ), and has committed $10 billion over several years. Driverless rides still make up less than 0.5% of the about 300 million trips Uber handles each week. Uber and Lyft both report soon, and those results will show whether rider demand is holding up.
What Tesla's Valuation Means for Investors Now
At this price, Tesla's valuation looks stretched. The stock trades at about 402 times earnings, which assumes a far bigger robotaxi business than one with nearly two million miles. Meanwhile, operating income fell 55.79% as research spending rose to $2.76 billion.
Uber's valuation is far more modest. It trades at about 14 times earnings and has guided third-quarter non-GAAP EPS of $0.84-$0.88. Because its model works with many partners, it can make money from autonomy no matter whose technology wins.
This view would change if Tesla reported unsupervised miles across several cities that far exceed two million. It would also change if Uber's next report showed trip growth stalling. Until either happens, watch whether Uber stays above $65.41.
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