EQT AB has been busy expanding its private markets footprint, and the share price performance over the past few years means investors are asking a simple question. Is today's EQT stock price supported by the returns the business earns on the capital it puts to work in these deals.
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Over the past 3 years EQT has delivered a total return of 56.5%, which puts real weight on whether its return on capital justifies that kind of share price outcome.
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The agreed takeovers of groups like Cleanaway, QIAGEN and US real estate manager Stockbridge may support higher fee based revenue and carried interest over time, which can influence how efficiently EQT converts invested capital into economic returns.
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What if you looked at EQT through its earnings instead? See why EQT's 30.1x P/E tells a different valuation story .
The issue now is whether the returns EQT earns on its capital are strong enough to make the current share price look sensible on that basis.
If you want to compare EQT's capital returns story with other opportunities, a focused stock screen is a useful next step. You can start with our screener containing 615 high quality undiscovered gems .
Is EQT a Bargain on Excess Returns?
The Excess Returns model looks at how much value EQT creates above the cost of its equity capital. On this view, the projections suggest EQT is earning more on its equity base than it is paying out to shareholders in required return, which is what you want to see in a capital heavy private markets group.
Book value is estimated at SEK6.61 per share today, with a stable book value projection of SEK8.16 per share and a stable EPS estimate of SEK1.67 per share. Against a cost of equity of SEK0.51 per share, the model points to an excess return of SEK1.16 per share and an average return on equity of 20.41%. With the agreed takeovers of groups like Cleanaway, QIAGEN and US real estate manager Stockbridge potentially adding more fee based assets over time, it is not surprising that the Excess Returns workup places estimated intrinsic value meaningfully above the current SEK299.40 share price. Find out what EQT could be worth using our Excess Returns estimate .
The EQT Narrative: What Would Justify Today's Price?
Simply Wall St Narratives pick up where the EQT valuation puzzle leaves off and explain which assumptions about EQT's future growth, margins and earnings would need to hold for the current price to appear materially higher or lower. Each scenario sets out the building blocks behind its view of fair value in a transparent way, so you can compare those expectations with EQT's actual results as they are reported.
Bulls on EQT see more headroom in the expanded platform than bears, who think a lot of that promise is already in the price.
Bull case: 20% undervalued
"Ongoing scaling of EQT's multi-asset private markets platform, including the integration of Coller Capital and the Stockbridge acquisition, is expected to lift fee-paying AUM and support higher management fee revenue over the current fundraising cycle…"
Discover why this Narrative puts EQT at 20% undervalued .
Bear case: roughly fairly valued
"Including Coller Capital and new offerings such as AI Infrastructure and the Scaleup Europe Fund has led EQT to lift its current fundraising cycle target from about €100b to roughly €140b…"
Explore why this Narrative puts EQT at roughly fairly valued .
One more EQT check that belongs beside the price tag
EQT's valuation story only goes so far without asking who is actually steering the firm and how their pay packages line up with your interests. See who runs EQT and how they are paid .
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include EQT.ST .
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