Key Takeaways
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ExxonMobil raised its quarterly dividend 4% to $1.07 a share on Oct. 30, while Pfizer held its payment at $0.43.
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At each company's five-year dividend growth rate, $10,000 in Pfizer would pay about $3,658 more than the same amount in ExxonMobil over the next 10 years.
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ExxonMobil's dividend took 40% of its free cash flow over the past year, against 89% at Pfizer.
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Analysts expect Pfizer's revenue to fall from $62.6 billion in 2025 to $55.0 billion in 2028, while several of its key drugs lose exclusivity.
ExxonMobil ( XOM:NYSE )raised its quarterly dividend 4% to $1.07 a share on Oct. 30. It was the company's 44th straight year of higher annual dividends.
Pfizer went the other way. Pfizer ( PFE:NYSE )held its quarterly payment at $0.43 when it declared it on Oct. 6. Even so, its 5.7% yield is still more than twice ExxonMobil's 2.4%.
So if you could buy only one and hold it for 10 years, would you take Pfizer's bigger check, or ExxonMobil's growing one?
Source: TIKR, Nov. 5, 2026; dividend records from each company. TTM to Sept. 30, 2026, for ExxonMobil and June 28, 2026, for Pfizer.
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ExxonMobil keeps plenty in reserve
ExxonMobil's dividend took a well-covered 40% of free cash flow over the 12 months to Sept. 30, 2026.
That free cash flow is far above fiscal 2025's $23.6 billion. CEO Darren Woods calls the gains from record fuels utilization and higher diesel yields lasting improvements that go beyond favorable prices and margins.
In fiscal 2025, the dividend's share of free cash flow climbed to 73%, from 26% in fiscal 2022. Free cash flow still covered it that year, as it has every year since fiscal 2021:
Woods said on the third-quarter call that "we're not going to ever cut our dividend. So any increases we add becomes an obligation that we've got to commit to the future."
The $20 billion of buybacks planned for 2027 helps with that: as he explained, a shrinking share count keeps the total dividend bill steady as the payout per share grows.
Put $10,000 in at its 2.4% yield, and it pays $240 a year now. At its 2.8% annual growth from fiscal 2020 to fiscal 2025, that grows to about $308 in year 10. Call it a 3.1% yield on your cash, before any gain in the shares.
Pfizer's bigger check has less room
Pfizer's cushion is far thinner. Its dividend took a risky 89% of free cash flow over the 12 months to June 28, 2026.
Free cash flow fell from $26.0 billion in fiscal 2022 to $4.79 billion in fiscal 2023. It has fallen short of the dividend in two of the last three years:
The business looks better than that record. Third-quarter revenue beat estimates at $16.6 billion, flat operationally from a year earlier. Launched and acquired products grew 32%, while Paxlovid fell 63%. On Nov. 3, Pfizer raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $62.0-$64.0 billion, from $60.5-$62.5 billion.
Management is firm on the payout. CEO Albert Bourla said on the second-quarter call: "We feel extremely confident that … even the most stretched scenarios that we are running, we will be able to maintain our dividend."
Put $10,000 in at 5.7%, and it pays $570 a year now. At its 2.5% annual growth from fiscal 2020 to fiscal 2025, that grows to about $712 in year 10, a 7.1% yield on your cash. With no raise this year, though, Pfizer is already off that pace.
The risk is the patent cliff. Ibrance, Xtandi and Eliquis outside the US are losing exclusivity. And new CFO Cecile Guegan said 2027 guidance will reflect two products entering Medicare's negotiated prices that year.
So which dividend wins?
I'd hold ExxonMobil for the next 10 years, even though it means leaving money on the table.
At each company's five-year growth rate, $10,000 in Pfizer pays about $6,387 over the decade, against about $2,729 in ExxonMobil. ExxonMobil's income wouldn't pass Pfizer's for more than 30 years.
But Pfizer has to keep paying for that lead to hold. Analysts expect its revenue to drop from $62.6 billion in fiscal 2025 to $55.0 billion in fiscal 2028:
That's a lot of pressure on a dividend already taking 89% of free cash flow.
ExxonMobil, meanwhile, kept raising its dividend even through fiscal 2020, when its free cash flow was negative $2.61 billion.
This isn't to say Pfizer's dividend is in trouble. Even with no raises at all, its $570 a year out-earns ExxonMobil's check in every year of the decade.
It's just that I'd expect at least one rough patch for each of these companies over 10 years. I trust ExxonMobil's cushion to carry its dividend through one.
Of course, oil prices helped ExxonMobil's past year. If its free cash flow slips back toward fiscal 2025's $23.6 billion, its payout ratio would head back toward that year's 73%. If that happens, I'd take another look at Pfizer.
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