For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.
Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) makes wearables and devices for fitness, outdoor, marine and aviation use. Its stock has beaten the S&P 500 in each of the last four years. A record like that looks like proof of an exceptional company. Out of 485 large U.S. stocks, how many do you think did the same?
How Rare Is Garmin's Winning Streak?
Before dividends, Garmin shares rose more than the index in each of the last four years, measured in periods of about twelve months to October 29, 2026. The latest year was close, with Garmin ahead by less than one percentage point.
| Period |
The stock |
S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2021 to Oct 21, 2022 |
-49.5% |
-17.5% |
| Oct 21, 2022 to Oct 24, 2023 |
+23.6% |
+13.2% |
| Oct 24, 2023 to Oct 24, 2024 |
+58.2% |
+36.8% |
| Oct 24, 2024 to Oct 28, 2025 |
+53.2% |
+18.6% |
| Oct 28, 2025 to Oct 29, 2026 |
+12.8% |
+12.0% |
The table also shows the year before the streak began, when Garmin (GRMN) trailed the index. Only 22 of the 485 current S&P 500 members measured beat the index in all four years. Just 46% of them beat it in the latest year. Beating the index was the less common result in that year, and doing it four years running is rare.
Could A Streak Like This Be Luck?
When tracking this many stocks, a few will build long streaks even if no company is better than another. About four in ten of these stocks beat the index in a typical year. Suppose pure luck decided the winners. You could put all 485 names in a hat each year and pull out four in ten of them as that year's winners.
Do that four years in a row, and about 11 names come out every single time. Eleven companies would hold a four-year winning streak with no skill involved at all. In reality, 22 companies have such a streak, which is about twice as many as luck alone would give. Some of the 22 may be there on merit. The count covers only today's index members, however, so companies that left the index are not in it. You cannot tell which names earned their streak from the share price alone.
Did Garmin's Profit Grow Through The Streak?
Garmin's net income, which counts one-time items , rose in each of the four years of the streak. Each comparison relies on net income for the twelve months to late September, just before each streak year starts and ends. Net income grew 109% over the whole stretch, while the shares rose 238%.
When shares rise far faster than profit, the price counts on growth still to come. As a case in point, Tesla is still priced at about 12 times sales even though its deliveries fell two years in a row. Read Trefis Big Story: How Tesla Blundered .
Profit grew only 3.5% in one of those years. The latest year also includes refunds of earlier tariffs that management said helped third-quarter margins. Even so, profit rose in every year of the streak, though it grew less than half as fast as the shares over the four years. That is evidence you can check in Garmin's results, not proof of skill.
What To Watch Instead Of The Streak
Fitness stands as Garmin's largest segment at 32.5% of revenue in fiscal 2025, and it is still growing. On the October 28, 2026 call, management said fitness revenue rose 16% in the third quarter, a record for that quarter, and that early demand for its new CIRQL Smart Ring has been very strong. Management also raised its full-year guide and now expects revenue to grow 12% in 2026.
Yet management expects higher memory costs to bring its gross margin back to a historical range in 2027. A streak serves as a record of what the share price did, while the profit behind it shows up in each new report. Garmin's net income growth, due with its next report in February 2027, is the figure to watch.
How To Act On GRMN?
Now you know Garmin better. Our purpose is to inform you so you can decide for yourself, and acting on one stock, in either direction, carries its own risk.
If you would rather own a portfolio built to spread that risk, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio holds 30 quality companies in equal weight. Since its inception in September 2020 it has returned 105%, ahead of a benchmark that combines the S&P 500, S&P Mid-cap and Russell 2000.
See How The HQ Portfolio Works
Spot an error or want more like this? Tell us in 10 seconds.
