HubSpot (NYSE:HUBS), the customer relationship management platform, is likely to deliver a smaller-than-usual beat against its third-quarter constant currency growth guidance, Bank of America (BofA) said, maintaining its 'underperform' rating.
HubSpot is due to report third-quarter results on November 4 after market close.
The analyst's checks suggest the buying environment is unlikely to improve soon, with channel partners reporting mixed feedback that was modestly more negative than in the second quarter.
BofA expects constant currency growth, which strips out exchange rate effects, to beat guidance by only 1.4 percentage points, against a typical beat of more than 2 points.
A 7% workforce reduction in October came alongside a reiteration of its third-quarter and full-year guidance, making an outright cut less likely.
HubSpot's shares have risen about 23% over the past month, and BofA said investors are looking for signs of demand stabilisation and early evidence of an AI-driven revenue opportunity.
HubSpot cut its 2026 net revenue retention outlook last quarter to roughly flat year on year, from expected growth of 1 to 2 percentage points, implying net revenue retention of about 103.5%.
BofA says net revenue retention needs to reach at least 103% in the third quarter, up 1 percentage point quarter on quarter, to avoid another reduction in guidance.
HubSpot began rolling out a simplified "platform plus credits" pricing model to new customers in Europe, the Middle East and Africa at the start of the fourth quarter, with a wider rollout to Asia-Pacific and US customers possible within three to six months.
Channel feedback suggests initial contract values could be 10% to 30% lower under the new model, creating near-term billings risk despite potential annual contract value growth as credit usage scales.
The bank said healthy win rates against competitors such as Salesforce could support the shares if customer buying patterns or budgets show signs of improvement.
