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Imdex (ASX:IMD) Shares Could Be Cheap Despite A 123% Run

Imdex has delivered a powerful 3 year share price run, which now puts the spotlight squarely on whether the current A$3.29 level lines up with the cash flows that underpin the business. With sentiment already reflected in the chart, the live question for anyone looking at Imdex today is how that market tag compares with its intrinsic value based on a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) view of the future cash the company can generate.

  • Over the past 3 years Imdex has returned 123.1%, so a lot of optimism is already embedded in the stock and that raises the stakes for what its cash flows can realistically support.

  • For a mining services group that relies on drilling technology and related solutions, the key swing factor for valuation is how efficiently revenue can be turned into durable free cash flow after funding equipment, technology and working capital needs.

  • Prefer to judge Imdex on earnings? See why Imdex's 21.5x P/E tells a different valuation story .

The stock's next move may depend on whether those projected cash flows, when run through a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) lens, are enough to justify the price investors are currently being asked to pay.

If you want a broader watchlist while you weigh Imdex against its cash flows, consider using a focused stock screen built around 4 high quality undervalued stocks .

Is Imdex Still Cheap on Cash Flow?

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model here looks at the cash that could ultimately flow to Imdex shareholders. On the latest twelve month view, the business generated about A$66.3 million in free cash flow, and the projections assume that figure grows rather than shrinks over time. For a drilling technology provider, that matters because the model is effectively saying current cash generation is a base, not a peak.

Analysts then extend that cash flow profile forward, with estimates pointing to higher annual free cash moving into the next decade and a second stage that tapers into more mature growth. When those cash flows are discounted back and set against the A$3.29 share price, the result is an estimated intrinsic value that the model suggests is substantially above where Imdex trades today. Find out what Imdex could be worth using our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) estimate .

The Imdex Narrative: What Would Justify Today's Price?

Simply Wall St Narratives pick up where the Imdex DCF puzzle leaves off. They spell out the specific combinations of future growth, profitability and earnings power that would need to hold for Imdex's share price to sit meaningfully above or below where it trades today. Each narrative links its number to a clear view on how revenue expansion, margin shape and risk factors might evolve, giving you something concrete to revisit as fresh information comes through.

One of the top community narratives on Imdex: 28% undervalued

"Rapid adoption of digital mining technologies and greater automation across the mining sector is accelerating customer uptake of high-margin, recurring SaaS offerings…"

Discover why this Narrative puts Imdex at 28% undervalued .

One more Imdex piece that could change your view

Cash flows and valuation models only tell part of the story for Imdex, because the track record, incentives and pay structure of the people steering the business can heavily influence what happens next. See who runs Imdex and how they are paid .

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include IMD.AX .

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

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