Inpex has delivered a powerful share price run in recent years, and fresh carbon storage approvals add another angle to the story. The live question now is whether that share price can still be explained by the dividends investors expect to collect from here.
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Over the past 5 years the stock has returned about 4.1x, which puts real pressure on the idea that its dividend stream alone can justify where the market values it today.
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The Australian offshore carbon storage approval may support future Ichthys LNG related cash flows and could influence how reliable or flexible Inpex's future dividend profile looks.
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If you'd rather focus on earnings, this one's for you. See why Inpex's 10.9x P/E tells a different valuation story .
For investors, the debate is whether the current price of around ¥4,047 fairly reflects the dividend stream that Inpex may be able to sustain over time.
If you want context for Inpex's dividend story and carbon storage news, it can help to scan other income focused energy plays using the 30 dividend fortresses .
Does Inpex Look Pricey on Dividends?
The Dividend Discount Model (DDM) here values Inpex by linking its expected dividends to its return on equity and growth profile. The model uses a recent dividend per share of ¥122.27, return on equity of about 9.09% and a payout ratio near 27.27%. Long term dividend growth is capped at 0.94%, which is lower than the 6.61% growth that the underlying earnings inputs might otherwise imply.
That cap keeps the dividend path relatively conservative and helps explain why the DDM projections put Inpex's estimated intrinsic value substantially below the current share price of ¥4,047. The recent Australian offshore carbon storage approval may support long term operations around Ichthys LNG. However, the model still assumes only modest dividend expansion over time, which limits the implied value it produces for the stock. Readers who want to see how this compares with other dividend payers can check the fuller valuation output and peers via the detailed model view. Find out what Inpex could be worth using our Dividend Discount Model (DDM) estimate .
The Inpex Narrative: What Would Justify Today's Price?
Narratives on Simply Wall St pick up where the Inpex valuation puzzle leaves off and spell out what kind of future growth, margins and earnings path would need to play out for the shares to be worth materially more or less than today's price. Rather than a single multiple or model output, each narrative lays out the key assumptions behind its view of fair value so you can compare those expectations with Inpex's actual results as they arrive, all presented on the Community page.
Bulls on Inpex see resilient LNG and low carbon cash flows, while bears focus on whether heavy project spending really clears the cost of capital.
Bull case: 19% undervalued
"The shift in global policy focus toward energy security and addition, together with projections for LNG demand in Asia rising well beyond current levels, gives Inpex more room to secure higher value long term offtake and portfolio deals that could support revenue resilience across cycles..."
Discover why this Narrative puts Inpex at 19% undervalued .
Bear case: 40% overvalued
"Although Inpex is commissioning CCS, blue hydrogen and other low carbon projects in Niigata and around Greater Tokyo, these activities are still early and require rising growth capex that is set to more than double to about ¥859b in FY 2026 and contribute to negative free cash flow and higher debt..."
Explore why this Narrative puts Inpex at 40% overvalued .
Before acting on Inpex's valuation, there is one more angle to check
The cash flows and carbon projects are only part of the story for Inpex, because the track record and pay structures of the people directing those choices can tilt outcomes for shareholders. See who runs Inpex and how they are paid .
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include 1605.T .
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