This article first appeared on GuruFocus .
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Net Income:EUR8.2 billion for 9M 2026 (up 8% YoY); over EUR2.6 billion in Q3 2026 (up 12% YoY); 2026 guidance upgraded to well above EUR10 billion.
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Return on Equity:21% for 9M 2026.
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Return on Tangible Equity:26% for 9M 2026.
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Earnings Per Share:Up 10% YoY.
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Revenues:Record-high; up more than EUR1 billion YoY; Q3 revenues up 4% YoY.
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Net Interest Income:Up more than EUR250 million YoY; Q3 up 6% YoY; full-year 2026 expected well above EUR15 billion.
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Commissions:Up 5% YoY, driven by wealth management and protection; record-high commissions and insurance income in 9M/Q3.
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Operating Costs:Down more than 1% YoY.
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Cost/Income Ratio:Down 2.4 percentage points YoY.
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Cost of Risk:19 basis points annualized, with increased NPL coverage.
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Loans to Customers:Up 4% YoY.
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Customer Deposits:Up 8% YoY; direct deposits up more than EUR5 billion in Q3 (EUR3 billion in current accounts).
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Customer Financial Assets:More than EUR1.5 trillion; up EUR100 billion YoY, with significant growth in assets under management.
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Common Equity Tier 1 Ratio:13.8% including DTA absorption benefit (13.1% cited earlier in the call).
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Taxes:EUR5.2 billion payable over nine months; EUR900 million impact from higher tax due to 2026 budget law.
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Shareholder Returns:EUR9.4 billion via dividends and buybacks in 2026, including EUR3.8 billion interim dividend; interim dividend per share up 18% YoY.
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Advisory Network:Over 19,300 people dedicated to assets under management growth; 800 added in 9M 2026.
Release Date: November 03, 2026
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript .
Positive Points
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Intesa Sanpaolo ( IITSF ) delivered its best nine months ever with net income of EUR8.2 billion and a record third quarter of over EUR2.6 billion, leading to an upgrade of 2026 net income guidance to well above EUR10 billion.
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Return on equity reached 21% and return on tangible equity 26%, with earnings per share up 10% year on year, demonstrating strong profitability.
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Revenues increased by over EUR1 billion year on year, driven by a well-diversified business model, with net interest income up 6% year on year in Q3 and expected to exceed EUR15 billion for the year.
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Costs were reduced by over 1%, improving the cost/income ratio by 2.4 percentage points, and asset quality remains best-in-class with an annualized cost of risk of 19 basis points and no signs of deterioration.
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The acquisition of Monte dei Paschi di Siena is well on track, with all supervisory approvals received and key shareholder support, expected to accelerate the business plan with zero integration risk.
Negative Points
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Intesa Sanpaolo ( IITSF ) faces an almost EUR1 billion impact from the 2026 budget law, which includes additional taxation on the banking sector, creating uncertainty and potential headwinds.
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The bank expressed dissatisfaction with the government's breach of a three-year agreement on banking sector contributions, leading to unexpected extra taxes that could affect future net income.
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Trading and capital markets components showed a negative mark-to-market valuation of EUR144 million due to spread widening, which may persist and impact results.
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There is uncertainty regarding the exact impact of the budget law, as the process is ongoing, and the bank may need to implement contingency plans to compensate for potential negative effects.
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The Monte dei Paschi di Siena transaction's settlement could slip into 2027, delaying integration charges and creating timing uncertainty for synergies and capital deployment.
Q & A Highlights
Q: Marco Nicolai of Jefferies asked for color on 2027 net interest income, noting that deposit growth, replicating portfolio rate sensitivity, and higher rates could support high single-digit NII growth. He also asked about deposit competition and deposit beta expectations. A: CEO Carlo Messina said Intesa Sanpaolo sees no significant deposit competition and does not expect threats in coming quarters or next year, citing its wealth management proposition combining deposits, assets under management, assets under administration, insurance, mortgages, and loans. He agreed with the high single-digit NII growth assumption for 2027, citing higher Euribor, increased hedging contribution, and volume growth. CFO Luca Bocca added that the replicating portfolio should contribute an increase of EUR500 million to EUR600 million in 2027.
Q: Sophie Peterzens of Goldman Sachs asked how to think about the Italian budget law's tax impact on Intesa in 2027, and whether the bank has concerns about Italian sovereign spreads and holding Italian government bonds. A: CEO Carlo Messina said Italy is in a unique position of stability, public debt is sustainable, and any spread widening would likely stem from France or the USA rather than Italy. He said next year's elections should not create significant negative spread dynamics given strong household savings, low household indebtedness, a solid corporate sector, and a strong banking sector. On the budget law, he said the government did not respect last year's three-year agreement on the banking sector's contribution, noting Intesa paid EUR5 billion in taxes in the first nine months, including a EUR900 million cash contribution. He said the final impact is unclear until the budget process ends, but the bank will use contingency plans on the cost base to compensate and remains committed to delivering promised net income.
Q: Pablo De la Torre Cuevas of RBC asked about the timing of the EUR2.1 billion Monte dei Paschi integration charges, previously expected in 2026, given a potential January 2027 settlement, and about managerial actions in the next quarter. He also asked about one-off impacts on Q3 risk-weighted assets and Q4 capital headwinds or tailwinds. A: CEO Carlo Messina said integration charges will depend on the settlement date and would fall in 2027 if settlement occurs then. He said the 2026 guidance of well above EUR10 billion already includes cost base actions, asset quality provisions, and other charges under a conservative approach. CFO Luca Bocca said the Q3 risk-weighted asset reduction was driven by retail model updates on PD and LGD validated by the ECB, plus new significant risk transfer operations. For Q4, he expects no major headwinds or tailwinds beyond EUR1 billion for operational risk, which is already being offset so risk-weighted assets should remain stable.
Q: Britta Schmidt of Autonomous Research asked whether additional commitments in Siena and Tuscany affect synergies and cost expectations, about sectors driving the Q3 increase in Stage 2 loans, and about the main uncertainties in the budget measures. A: CEO Carlo Messina said there is no reduction in synergies, as the tech hub and reinforced Tuscan presence were already planned and are simply being placed in Siena due to the transaction. He said departures will be voluntary and replaced by young hires in the same locations, with no economic implication. On Stage 2 loans, he called the increase marginal and physiological given the bank's strong asset quality. On the budget law, he said the process is still at a starting point, some financial and economic impacts are unclear, and it would not be serious to give an indication now, but the bank is fully committed to delivering promised net income in any conditions.
Q: Hugo Cruz of KBW asked how much in performance fees was booked in Q4 last year and whether similar fees are expected this quarter, and about the timeline for delisting Mediobanca if the Monte dei Paschi offer succeeds. A: CFO Luca Bocca said EUR90 million of performance fees were booked in Q4 last year and a similar number is possible this quarter depending on market volatility, noting that first three quarters were below EUR50 million. CEO Carlo Messina said the Monte dei Paschi settlement timing remains uncertain between end-2026 and early 2027; once completed, Intesa will make a mandatory offer on Mediobanca, and after full control it will begin integration, continuing to invest in the Mediobanca brand and its people.
Q: Lorenzo Giacometti of Intermonte asked whether additional branch remedies beyond the 600 branches would go to Unipol under the existing agreement within the EUR3 billion to EUR3.5 billion range, or be a separate disposal. A: CEO Carlo Messina expressed total trust in the antitrust institution and said the final economic result should be in line with the proposal to the market. He said any further branch sales would not go to Unipol but to other buyers, though he considers it unlikely that additional remedies will be required.
Q: Andrea Lisi of Equita asked for color on the negative EUR144 million capital markets trading component and for an update on talks with unions over the workforce contract renewal. A: CEO Carlo Messina said the trading loss is a mark-to-market valuation effect from negative spread dynamics, purely asset valuation that he hopes will recover as conditions normalize. He said the bank chose not to push for offsetting capital gains because net income was strong enough to raise guidance. On the contract renewal, he said Intesa is defining its internal position before working with ABI, and while the budget law's impact on banking sector net income is a concern, the bank's approach is always to take care of its people.
Q: Marco Nicolai of Jefferies followed up asking for an update on the replicating portfolio contribution for 2027 and 2028. A: CFO Luca Bocca said the replicating portfolio is benefiting from higher rates and an increase of between EUR500 million and EUR600 million can be expected for 2027.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript .
