Key Takeaways
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IREN jumped 18.33% Friday after its fiscal first-quarter report, a day after hitting a 52-week low, but the stock is still down 43.5% in 2026.
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AI cloud revenue nearly tripled, but IREN pushed its more than $4 billion ARR target to January 2027, possibly February.
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Bernstein cut its target to $55 from $100 after Texas elected a governor who backs a data center moratorium, and kept its Outperform rating.
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The stock looks cheap if Microsoft gets its last three Childress phases by February and IREN funds its build without heavy dilution.
IREN( IREN:NASDAQ ) shares are up 18.33% today (trading at $21.34) after its fiscal first-quarter report showed AI cloud revenue nearly tripling. The bounce comes a day after the stock hit a 52-week low of $17.16, and it still leaves IREN down 43.5% in 2026.
Neoclouds sold off together, including CoreWeave( CRWV:NASDAQ ), which reports on Nov. 10. But IREN took extra hits from Texas, where Bernstein ranks IREN and Cipher Digital( CIFR:NASDAQ ) among the most exposed miners turned AI developers, and from Microsoft( MSFT:NASDAQ ), the customer behind roughly half of IREN's contracted ARR.
IREN's Quarter Beat the Fear, Not the Calendar
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Revenue rose 66% from the prior quarter to $228 million , with AI cloud revenue up 182% to $200 million.
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After the quarter, IREN signed a five-year contract worth about $22 million in estimated annual revenue per IT megawatt, with customer prepayments covering 90% of the estimated GPU cost.
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The more than $4 billion ARR target, previously due by year-end, now points to January 2027 and may slip to February (a customer-requested change plus supplier timing).
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Horizon 1 is with Microsoft. Horizons 2 to 4 are in late-stage construction.
Analysts expect revenue to nearly quadruple, from $707 million in fiscal 2026 to $2.81 billion in fiscal 2027, then reach $7.41 billion in fiscal 2028.
Those estimates predate the delay. A January or February target still lands inside fiscal 2027, which runs to June, but it leaves fewer months to bill before then, since revenue only ramps after commissioning, testing and customer acceptance.
TIKR Tracks 20 Analysts on IREN. How Many Say "Buy"?
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Microsoft Is the Real Test for IREN
On Microsoft's Oct. 28 earnings call, CFO Amy Hood said "some third-party capacity deliveries we expected in Q1 were delayed." The Information later tied that delay to Childress. On Thursday, Bloomberg reported that Microsoft is tightening oversight of some IREN, Nebius and Nscale projects, and that IREN agreed a revised Childress timeline that may run several weeks or months late.
Microsoft's Childress contract should bring in about $1.94 billion a year. With Azure revenue up 48% last quarter, Microsoft still needs the capacity.
Texas Turned a Delay Into a Discount
Gina Hinojosa won the Texas governor's race on Nov. 3 after vowing a moratorium on new data centers. Abbott had already paused some permits, and Bernstein now expects that pause to last. IREN's Texas campuses hold 2.75 of its roughly 5 gigawatts of secured power.
Bernstein cut its target to $55 from $100 on Nov. 4, still 158% above today's price. On Nov. 2, IREN traded at 3.1x forward sales, against a 5.2x three-year average and 17x at its November 2025 peak.
The Bottom Line on IREN Stock
IREN plans about $20 billion of capex this fiscal year. Of the $15 billion still to spend, $9 billion is covered and $6 billion depends on markets. It had 394.06 million shares on Aug. 14 , so that $6 billion is the dilution question.
A late phase costs IREN a few months of revenue. Losing Microsoft would cost it roughly half its contracted ARR, and nothing reported this week says that's happening. At about 3x sales, the stock prices in something closer to the worse case. If Horizons 2 to 4 reach Microsoft by February and the $6 billion closes without a flood of new shares, Bernstein is closer to right than the price. Until then, I'd keep it a small position.
So what is IREN stock actually worth?
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