Key Takeaways
-
IREN jumped 19% after AI Cloud revenue rose 182% from the June quarter to $200 million.
-
Its target of more than $4 billion in annualized revenue slipped to January at Microsoft's request, but IREN says it's still fully contracted and funded.
-
This week's scare looks like a timing slip, but $6 billion of planned spending lacks financing.
-
The next test is Microsoft signing off on the rest of IREN's Texas capacity.
IREN ( IREN:NASDAQ )stock jumped 19% today after its fiscal first-quarter report traced the scare that took more than a quarter off its value to a schedule change at Microsoft ( MSFT:NASDAQ ).
AI Cloud revenue nearly tripled from the June quarter to $200 million, and the first of four Microsoft data halls in Childress, Texas, went into service on GB300 systems.
Microsoft asked for the delay
IREN sank on Thursday on The Information's report that Childress delays had pushed back Microsoft's AI spending.
Its target of more than $4 billion in annualized revenue by year-end now lands in January, possibly the end of February. On the call, co-CEO Daniel Roberts said Microsoft "made a request to reconfigure and upgrade some of the network infrastructure" to serve "these latest-generation frontier models."
IREN also says the target is still "fully contracted and fully funded."
Microsoft's own September quarter supports that: Azure revenue grew 48%, and its commercial remaining performance obligation rose 73% to $677 billion.
TIKR tracks 20 analysts on IREN. How many say "Buy"?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on IREN, along with Wall Street's revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See IREN's Analyst Ratings
Analysts were already counting on a steep climb
Before the report, analysts expected revenue to nearly quadruple in the year to June 2027, then more than double again:
A month or two of delay trims the fiscal 2027 figure, but leaves fiscal 2028's intact if the halls come online.
At the last close, the stock traded at 3.1x forward sales, well below its three-year average of 5.2x:
$6 billion still needs a lender
IREN plans $15 billion more of capex in fiscal 2027. Cash, committed GPU financing and customer prepayments cover $9 billion; the other $6 billion isn't lined up yet.
GPU financing is the first source IREN lists for that gap, which brings in NVIDIA ( NVDA:NASDAQ ). In August, NVIDIA announced plans with six investment firms to raise over $500 billion of outside capital for AI infrastructure. Its Nov. 17 report should show whether that money reaches buyers like IREN.
January is the new deadline
IREN backed up its claim, and today's bounce looks earned.
Of course, Microsoft still has to accept the rest of Childress by January or February. And if that $6 billion comes from new shares, holders keep less of the upside.
So what is IREN stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR's valuation model and see what IREN could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It's free to use.
