Logan Group (SEHK:3380) stock is in focus after the company reported half year 2026 results, with sales of CNY 1,503.51 million and a narrowed net loss of CNY 676.11 million.
Logan Group's latest earnings update comes after a mixed year for investors, with the share price at HK$1.445, a 1 day share price return of 3.21% and a 90 day share price return of 9.47%. The year to date share price return is down 18.82% and the 1 year total shareholder return is 70.00%, indicating that recent momentum has improved. However, longer term performance over 5 years, with a total shareholder return down 83.62%, still reflects earlier challenges.
Scan Logan Group alongside other property related ideas by reviewing our curated list of solid balance sheet and fundamentals (427 results) .
Bulls see Logan Group's shrinking losses and sharp 1 year rebound as the start of a repair story. Bears point to weaker sales and a long 5 year slump. Which case does the current valuation lean toward next?
Preferred Price-to-Sales of 1.6x: Is it justified?
Logan Group is currently trading at a P/S ratio of 1.6x, compared with 0.7x for the wider Hong Kong real estate sector and 0.5x for its peer group. That places the stock on a materially higher revenue multiple than many similar property developers at the last close of HK$1.445.
The P/S ratio compares the company's market capitalisation with its revenue. For a property developer like Logan Group, this focuses attention on how the market values each unit of current sales rather than profit, which is useful while the company remains loss making. A higher P/S often implies investors are willing to pay more per dollar of revenue, which can reflect expectations around future margin improvement, asset quality or balance sheet repair.
However, Logan Group is currently unprofitable, with a reported net loss of CN¥3,660.71 million and a negative return on equity of 17.32%. Losses have also increased over the past 5 years at an annual rate of 39.8%. Against that backdrop, a 1.6x P/S ratio suggests the market is attaching a richer value to each unit of revenue than it does for the industry and for direct peers, even though there is insufficient data to assess whether earnings or revenue are forecast to grow faster than the market.
Compared to the Hong Kong real estate industry average P/S of 0.7x, Logan Group's 1.6x multiple is more than double and it is also significantly above the 0.5x peer average. That is a clear valuation premium per unit of sales, even though there is insufficient data to calculate a P/S fair ratio level that the market might eventually move toward.
See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
Result: Price-to-Sales of 1.6x (OVERVALUED)
DCF estimate suggests a lower share price than fair value
Alongside the P/S comparison, the SWS DCF model currently estimates a fair value of HK$3.22 per share for Logan Group, relative to the last close of HK$1.445. Based on this model, the shares trade at a 55.1% discount to the DCF estimate of future cash flow value.
The SWS DCF model projects the company's future cash flows and discounts them back to today using a required rate of return. This approach aims to capture the full stream of estimated cash generation over time rather than focusing only on current earnings or revenue. For Logan Group, which is loss making today but still reports significant revenue, a cash flow based view provides a different angle from earnings or multiples.
The company's current loss position and weaker coverage of debt by operating cash flow highlight that execution on future projects and funding structure remain important variables in that cash flow path. The absence of reliable growth forecasts in the data means the DCF is based on the cash flow assumptions within the SWS model rather than on analyst consensus, so readers may want to compare this with their own expectations for Logan Group's development pipeline and property market conditions.
Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
Result: DCF Fair value of HK$3.22 (UNDERVALUED)
However, investors still face risks around ongoing net losses of CN¥3,660.71 million and weaker debt coverage, which could challenge the recovery narrative for Logan Group.
Find out about the key risks to this Logan Group narrative.
Another View on Logan Group's value
The P/S comparison paints Logan Group as expensive at 1.6x revenue, yet the SWS DCF model points in the opposite direction. It suggests a fair value of HK$3.22 per share versus the current HK$1.445, which implies the stock trades at a 55.1% discount.
Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
If the market continues to lean on simple revenue multiples and ignore the cash flow view, which signal will matter more for Logan Group over time?
Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day ( check out Logan Group for example ). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 266 high quality undervalued stocks . If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.
Next Steps
Logan Group's mixed signals on value and risk make this a stock where your own judgement really matters, so review the figures, compare both scenarios and weigh the 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs .
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include 3380.HK .
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