MeiraGTx Holdings plc( NASDAQ:MGTX ) investors will be delighted, with the company turning in some strong numbers with its latest results. Revenue crushed expectations at US$81m, beating expectations by 676%. MeiraGTx Holdings reported a statutory loss of US$1.42 per share, which - although not amazing - was much smaller than the analysts predicted. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on MeiraGTx Holdings after the latest results.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from MeiraGTx Holdings' seven analysts is for revenues of US$111.2m in 2026. This reflects a sizeable 37% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are expected to be contained, narrowing 16% from last year to US$1.18. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$124.7m and losses of US$1.13 per share in 2026. There's been a definite change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a notable cut to next year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share forecasts.
View our latest analysis for MeiraGTx Holdings
There was no major change to the consensus price target of US$26.25, signalling that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite lower earnings per share forecasts. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values MeiraGTx Holdings at US$50.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$16.00. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's clear from the latest estimates that MeiraGTx Holdings' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 37% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 12% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 20% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect MeiraGTx Holdings to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at MeiraGTx Holdings. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$26.25, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for MeiraGTx Holdings going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 3 warning signs for MeiraGTx Holdings (2 make us uncomfortable!) that you need to be mindful of.
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