Methanex (TSX:MX) just put fresh numbers on the table, reporting third quarter 2026 earnings alongside a new share buyback plan and an upcoming shutdown of its New Zealand production assets.
Methanex's share price has climbed steadily, with a 30 day share price return of 4.07% and a 90 day move of 12.66%, feeding into a strong year to date gain of 56.82%. The 1 year total shareholder return of 87.85% signals powerful momentum rather than a short lived bounce.
Scan how Methanex's surge compares with other materials producers by reviewing a curated set of 4 high quality undervalued stocks that combine balance sheet strength with cash generation potential.
Bulls point to Methanex's sharp earnings rebound, rich cash generation, and fresh buyback. Bears focus on cyclic methanol pricing and the New Zealand shutdown overhang. Which case do the current valuation markers seem to support?
Most Popular Narrative: 4% Undervalued
Against a last close of CA$87.77, the most followed narrative pegs Methanex at a fair value of CA$91.07, implying modest undervaluation that leans heavily on future earnings power and margin repair.
The analysts have a consensus price target of CA$91.07 for Methanex based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
In order for you to agree with the analysts, you would need to believe that by 2029, revenues will be $4.1 billion, earnings will come to $805.2 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 7.8x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.7%.
See why 15 investors see Methanex as 4% undervalued .
Result: Fair Value of CA$91.07 (UNDERVALUED)
Still, the whole story can change quickly if contracted gas supplies tighten further or if methanol prices soften faster than analysts currently assume.
Find out about the key risks to this Methanex narrative .
Another View: Methanex Looks Expensive On Earnings
The fair value narrative paints Methanex as modestly undervalued. The earnings multiple tells a sharper story. At a P/E of 54.9x versus 34.9x for peers and a fair ratio of 17.9x, investors are paying a rich price for each dollar of profit. Is that premium a cushion, or is it thin ice?
See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
Next Steps
Mixed signals rarely resolve themselves. Consider Methanex's recent momentum, its current production headwinds, and the overall risk reward balance. Then pressure test your own thesis against 2 key rewards and 4 important warning signs .
Looking for more ideas beyond Methanex?
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include MX.TO .
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