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Michael Burry Sees Up to 140% Upside in One Stock

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This article first appeared on GuruFocus .

Michael Burry ( Trades , Portfolio ) is adding to several of his contrarian bets, including BYD ( BYDDF ), JD.com and Sprouts Farmers Market, while arguing payments giant Fiserv could have as much as 140% upsidein a potential takeover scenario.

According to his latest investment updates, Burry bought additional BYD shares, added to his 2028 Sprouts Farmers Market LEAP calls, and increased his 2029 JD.com call options. He described JD as a large position and BYD as a mid-sized holding, although he did not disclose the size of the latest purchases.

The China bets stand out.

Burry has compared the prolonged decline in Hong Kong equities since the Hang Seng Index peaked in 2021 with the scale of the Great Depression-era market collapse. He believes the selloff has created unusually cheap opportunities.

JD is one example.

Burry said the company holds about $24.3 billion in net cash, equivalent to roughly 71% of its market capitalization, leaving its underlying operating business valued at around three times what he calls owners' earnings.

But perhaps his most striking call is Fiserv.

Burry believes the payments company could command $100 to $120 per sharein a hypothetical takeover, versus a recent price around $50. That implies roughly 100% to 140% potential upside.

His valuation is based partly on reported private-equity interest in rival Global Payments. Applying a similar roughly 7x profit multipleto Fiserv produces the much higher takeout range, according to Burry.

He argues Fiserv has been stuck in a penalty box after previous management set overly ambitious growth targets and benefited from Argentine hyperinflation in ways he believes were not communicated clearly enough. He also pointed to recent insider buying as supportive.

Burry continues to hold PayPal as well, calling the stock a Fat Pitch when trading in the $50s.

Investor Takeaway

I think the most interesting part of Burry's latest moves is the pattern.

He is not chasing the market's most crowded winners.

Instead, he is adding to businesses where valuation has already collapsed and expectations are low: Chinese equities, Sprouts after weakness, and payments stocks trading at depressed multiples.

Fiserv is the most dramatic example.

A $100 to $120 takeover valuation is not a forecast that a deal will happen, but it shows just how wide Burry believes the gap has become between the stock price and underlying business value.

For investors, the key things to watch are Fiserv earnings and deal activity, JD's cash deployment, BYD's valuation and growth, and whether Burry continues increasing these positions.

Burry's latest message is fairly consistent.

He still sees opportunity where the market has already given up.

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