Key Takeaways
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Moderna shares jumped 8% today after third-quarter revenue rose 29% and it raised its 2026 revenue growth outlook to 15%-25%.
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The growth came mostly from Covid vaccine sales abroad under long-term government deals, which make the business steadier.
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Pfizer and BioNTech reported weaker sales of their rival Comirnaty shot for the same quarter.
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Moderna still trades near its five-year high on forward sales, so the stock rides on its cancer vaccine.
Moderna ( MRNA:NASDAQ )shares jumped 8% today after it blew past third-quarter estimates and raised its 2026 revenue outlook.
That's a very different quarter from the one Pfizer ( PFE:NYSE )and its partner BioNTech ( BNTX:NASDAQ )reported for their rival shot on Tuesday.
Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel gave two reasons in an interview with CNBC : "The new product and the diversification of geography is what has led to such a strong Q3."
What exactly happened
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Revenue rose 29% to $1.31 billion, with $533 million from outside the US. Analysts surveyed by LSEG expected $885 million.
Well ahead of what analysts expected
Going into the report, analysts expected much slower growth this year:
That $2.10 billion for 2026 would be about 8% growth. Moderna's new 15%-25% range works out to roughly $2.23 billion to $2.43 billion, and the top of that range is about what analysts expected for 2027. I'd expect both years' estimates to move up.
Covid, on contract
In the third quarter, Moderna delivered vaccines under long-term government partnerships with the UK, Canada and Australia. Contracts like these make each year easier to predict.
Pfizer and BioNTech saw the other side of it. Pfizer's Comirnaty sales fell 29% operationally in the third quarter, partly because of lower contractual deliveries in certain international markets. BioNTech's revenue fell 15% to €1.29 billion. One quarter is too early to call it a share shift, but it's the right direction for Moderna.
TIKR tracks 23 analysts on Moderna. How many say "Buy"?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Moderna, along with Wall Street's revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Moderna's Analyst Ratings
Priced for the cancer vaccine
Investors bid the stock up this year on intismeran, Moderna's cancer vaccine with Merck. In a Phase 3 trial, it cut the risk of melanoma recurrence or death by 42% when combined with Keytruda. Moderna's forward price-to-sales multiple is near its five-year high:
At 46x before today's jump, it's far above its 7.9x five-year average, and today's move takes it even higher.
A steadier Covid business that helps pay for the pipeline makes Moderna less risky. At these prices, though, you're paying for intismeran, and roughly $2.3 billion of Covid revenue can't hold up a multiple like this.
Of course, Bancel said Covid contracts are usually set in the first quarter, so early next year will show whether these deals keep their volume.
So what is Moderna stock actually worth?
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