Nexa (NEXA) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

It has no impact on cash, and José Carlos will provide you with more details in a few minutes. What drove the quarter? Three things. First, higher zinc prices, and compared with last year, a much stronger byproduct contribution, especially from silver and copper. Second, our Peruvian operations continue to normalize, and Aripuanã stepped up with the fourth tailing filter operating as expected. Third, Cajamarquilla operated normally throughout the quarter after the May fire, and sales volumes recovered. In mining, zinc production reached 85,000 tons, up 7% from the second quarter, driven mainly by Aripuanã. In smelting, production jumped 28% to 159,000 tons, as Cajamarquilla processed most of the cathode inventory buildup after the fire.

Sales grew 9% to 146,000 tons, slower than production, as part of the output was allocated to fourth quarter sales. Looking ahead, 3 factors support the fourth quarter. At Aripuanã, plant utilization averaged 84% for the quarter and reached 90% in September. We expect utilization to continue to improve in the next quarter. In smelting, the metal inventory at Cajamarquilla positioned us to meet seasonally stronger demand in the fourth quarter. At Cerro de Pasco, the integration project is on track for mechanical completion in December. On guidance, we raised our 2026 CapEx to $420 million, mainly to advance mine development at Aripuanã, bring forward investments at Cerro de Pasco, and reflect the stronger Brazilian real.

We also updated our cost guidance to reflect higher metal prices and a stronger real. Our production and sales guidance for the year remains unchanged. Now, let's move to slide number 4 for a closer look at mining. Zinc production rose 7% from the second quarter to 85,000 tons on higher throughput and grades. Aripuanã, Vazante, and El Porvenir drove the increase, with higher zinc production. Compared with last year, production was up 1%. Our production guidance for all metals remains unchanged, and we expect the fourth quarter to be our stronger quarter of the year. For copper, given the lower grades at Cerro Lindo, we expect to finish at the lower end of the range.

On costs, cash cost net of byproducts was negative $0.64 per pound, better than both the second quarter and last year. Versus the second quarter, which reflects mark-to-market adjustments on lead and copper concentrates, lower costs, and higher zinc sales at Aripuanã. The year-over-year change is mainly driven by a stronger byproduct contribution. We lowered our 2026 cash cost guidance, reflecting much higher byproduct prices. So far this year, we are negative at $0.45 per pound towards the lower end of the new range. Cost per ton of run-of-mine was $54, down 5% from the second quarter and up 7% from last year. We adjusted the guidance mainly due to the stronger Brazilian real and higher costs at Aripuanã.

For the first 9 months, we are at $55.07, near the top of the range, and we expect this to improve in the fourth quarter with higher volumes. Financially, mining had a stronger quarter. Net revenues were $454 million, and Adjusted EBITDA was $236 million, up 7% from the second quarter and 44% year-over-year. Margin reached 52%, up 10 points from the second quarter. Now, let's move to Aripuanã on slide number 5. Aripuanã had a very good quarter. Treated ore reached a record 471,000 tons, up 18% from the second quarter, and zinc production rose 48% to 13,000 tons, matching its best quarter, driven by higher throughput and better grades. The fourth filter is performing well.

It handled 61% of all the tailings filter in the quarter. Plant utilization averaged 84%, up from 71% in the second quarter, and reached 90% in September. For the fourth quarter, we expect higher utilization and improved recoveries. Zinc production should remain stable as higher throughput offset lower grades in the mine plan. We are also accelerating mine development at Aripuanã to open more mining fronts and support higher throughput in 2027. Now, to Cerro Pasco on slide number six. At Cerro Pasco, phase one construction is advancing as planned. During the quarter, we completed all civil works, the major equipment assembly, the access road, and the raise of the Atacocha Dam. Pre-commissioning and commissioning are already underway.

We expect mechanical completion in December, followed by commissioning activities in the first quarter of 2027. The operating authorization for the pumping system is expected in the second quarter, and we expect to start pumping in the early third quarter of 2027 as planned. On permitting, the environmental impact study modifications for El Porvenir and Atacocha are still under review by SENACE, and we now expect approvals in March and April 2027. On CapEx, we invested $15 million in the quarter and $31 million so far this year. We raised the project's 2026 budget to $41 million, up from $31 million, as we bring forward investments. Now, let's move to smelting on slide number seven.

In smelting, production reached 159,000 tons, up 28% from the second quarter and 8% from last year, driven by the recovery at Cajamarquilla and the processing of the cathode inventory buildup after the fire. Sales were 146,000 tons, up 9% from the second quarter. Compared with last year, sales were down 2%. The inventory we built up Cajamarquilla, together with seasonally stronger demand in the fourth quarter, supports our unchanged full-year sales guidance. Byproducts more important for sulfuric acid sales rose 18% from the second quarter to 178,000 tons, and silver and copper cement sales were both up 14%.

On costs, cash cost net of byproducts was $1.65 per pound, up 15% from the second quarter, as higher zinc prices raised the cost of the concentrate we purchase. We raised the guidance range considering higher zinc prices and a strong real, partially offset by higher byproduct prices. For the nine months, we are at $1.50 per pound within the new range. Conversion cost was $0.36 per pound in the quarter and $0.35 per pound for the first nine months. We adjusted the guidance mainly for currency and higher fixed costs. Higher volumes in the fourth quarter should dilute fixed costs and keep us within the new range.

Financially, the segment generated net revenues of $696 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $65 million, which was broadly stable for the second quarter and nearly three times higher than a year ago. The year-over-year improvement was mainly driven by byproducts, higher zinc prices, and higher realized treatment charges. The EBITDA margin was 9%. With that, I will hand it over to José Carlos, our CFO, for the financials.

José Carlos del Valle:Thank you, Ignacio, and good morning, everyone. Let's go to slide number 8. Net revenues totaled $937 million, up 3% from the second quarter and 23% from the same period last year. Versus the second quarter, the increase came from higher smelting sales and higher zinc and copper prices, partly offset by lower silver prices and lower mining sales volumes. Versus last year, the improvement came from higher zinc prices and from a $65 million higher byproduct contribution. Adjusted EBITDA was $301 million, up 5% from the second quarter, with a 32% margin.

Higher zinc prices, the recovery in smelting sales, and stronger byproducts more than offset higher raw material costs that resulted from a larger share of third-party concentrates in our smelter feed, as well as lower cash dividend from Enercan. Versus last year, quarterly Adjusted EBITDA was up 62%, as higher zinc prices and byproducts more than offset higher operating costs, a stronger Brazilian real, and lower smelting sales. At the bottom line, we reported a net loss of $47 million, or $0.47 per share. The main driver was a $124 million non-cash impairment related to our combined Juiz de Fora and Três Marias System.

It mainly reflects lower long-term treatment charge assumptions in a tighter concentrate market, as well as a stronger Brazilian real, which more than offset the benefit of higher long-term metal price assumptions. It has no cash impact and is excluded from Adjusted EBITDA. Excluding this and other items, adjusted net income was $144 million, and adjusted earnings per share were $0.87. Let's move to investments on slide number 9. We raised our 2026 CapEx guidance by 10% to $420 million. There are three drivers: higher mine development at Aripuanã, higher investment in tailings facilities as we bring forward investments at Cerro Pasco that were originally planned for 2027, and the stronger Brazilian real.

We invested $111 million in the quarter and $272 million so far this year, about 65% of the new guidance. So we expect that spending will increase in the fourth quarter in line with prior years. In exploration and project evaluation, we invested $21 million in the quarter, up 24% from the second quarter, with a faster pace of drilling. We are at about 62% of our full-year budget of $86 million, which remains unchanged. Now to cash flow on slide number 10. Operating cash flow before working capital was $306 million, up 7% from the second quarter and up 50% from last year. Working capital and other variations consumed $58 million, primarily reflecting inventory buildup.

This included zinc metal inventories at Cajamarquilla to support fourth-quarter sales, as well as higher zinc concentrate inventories as part of our El Niño preparedness strategy. We expect that metal inventory at Cajamarquilla to unwind with fourth-quarter sales. This line also includes a $16.7 million payment to SUNAT made in August, related to tax contingencies for fiscal years 2016 and 2017 under the Cerro Lindo tax stability agreement. No further installments remain for those years. This payment preserves our right for the admissibility of our appeal before the tax court and does not represent acceptance of SUNAT's position. Furthermore, we continue to believe that our technical and legal position provides a strong basis for the future recovery of these amounts.

After the $63 million in interest and taxes and the $112 million in CapEx, free cash flow was $73 million. As a reminder, free cash flow is defined as net operating cash flow minus CapEx. On the capital structure side, debt and lease payments net totaled $25 million. Other cash components are dividends to minority shareholders and the $17.5 million share premium reimbursement, net of the dividend received from Enercan, which totaled $23 million. Overall, cash and cash equivalents increased by $25 million to $405 million at the end of the quarter. Let's move to slide number 11 to talk about liquidity, indebtedness, and credit rating. Our liquidity position remains solid.

We ended the quarter with $735 million available, including our undrawn $320 million revolving credit facility. Our debt profile is long-dated. Only 8% of our debt, or $136 million, matures through the end of 2027, and the average maturity is 6.8 years at an average cost of 6.7%. Net leverage continued to come down to 1.24 times from 1.4 times in June and from 2.21 times a year ago, driven by last 12 months Adjusted EBITDA of almost $1.2 billion. On credit ratings, in August, Fitch placed our BBB- rating on Rating Watch Negative after the Boliden transaction announcement, citing limited visibility on our ties with the future controlling shareholder.

Earlier this week, S&P lowered Nexa's long-term issuer and senior unsecured notes rating to BB+ from BBB-, removing them from CreditWatch Negative, where they had been placed in July 2026. At the same time, it assigned a stable outlook and affirmed its A-3 short-term issuer credit rating. According to S&P, the downgrade reflects its view that although Nexa will remain a strategically important subsidiary of Boliden, the perceived support level is one category lower than what it was with Votorantim. As a result, the change of control provisions of the 2028 Notes will become applicable upon closing of the transaction.

On the other hand, change of control provisions under the 2034 and the 2037 notes will only become applicable if another downgrade takes place. Going forward, our priorities remain the same: free cash flow generation, disciplined capital allocation, and gross debt reduction. With that, I'll hand it back to Rodrigo for an overview of market fundamentals.

Rodrigo Cammarosano:Thank you, José Carlos. Let's turn to markets, starting with zinc and copper on slide number 12. Zinc prices reached their highest level since 2022, driven primarily by a deepening shortage of concentrate. The LME zinc price averaged $3,825 per ton in the quarter, 35% higher than a year ago. For smelters, however, margins remain under pressure. Spot treatment charges in China ended the quarter at negative $236 per ton, more than double the negative level in June. What cushions that pressure is byproducts, especially sulfuric acid and silver, and that is where we are well-positioned as a net producer of sulfuric acid with significant silver production. Refined metal inventories also play an important role in the current price environment.

Combined LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories cover only about one week of global consumption. As a result, we expect tight fundamentals to continue supporting zinc prices, while treatment charges remain under pressure through the year-end. In copper, the LME price averaged $14,104 per ton, up 44% from a year ago, and hit a record in September, supported by tight supply and U.S. stockpiling ahead of a tariff decision. The key near-term uncertainty is the Section 232 decision, but demand should remain structurally strong, driven by power grids, renewables, energy storage, and AI-related infrastructure. Now, let's turn to slide number 13 for a look at precious metals.

Silver averaged $62.6 per ounce in the third quarter, up 59% from a year ago, but down 14% from the second quarter. After closing June at $58.8 per ounce, it recovered and held around $65 per ounce from August onwards, despite rate hikes in September by the Fed, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan. Looking ahead, higher real rates and stronger U.S. dollar could weigh on silver, while demand from solar, electrification, and AI should remain supportive. This matters for us. With 10 million to 11 million ounces expected this year, Nexa is a significant silver producer. Gold prices averaged $4,262 per ounce, up 23% from a year ago, and about 5% below the second quarter.

Investment demand, central bank buying, and geopolitical uncertainty continue to support prices, while higher bond yields raise the relative cost of holding gold. Together, silver and gold byproduct credits keep lowering unit cash cost at our polymetallic operations. Finally, on slide 14, a few takeaways from the LME Week in London earlier this month. The macro backdrop was a constant theme, with persistent inflation, geopolitical tensions, and tariffs contributing to a more cautious market sentiment. Even so, sentiment on base metals remained constructive, particularly for copper and zinc. Copper captured the headlines, but zinc drew a lot of attention, and there was broad consensus that its fundamentals are supportive and should stay that way for longer. Why? First, supply.

The concentrate market is tight. Major producers are facing lower ore grades, some polymetallic miners are prioritizing copper production, disruptions continue, and there is limited new supply coming. Demand is modest, but it is backed by infrastructure investment and, to a lesser extent, the energy transition. Second, treatment charges. With concentrate this tight, the market expects the 2027 benchmark to settle below this year's $85 per ton. Third, and this was the standout topic, byproducts. Sulfuric acid is at multi-year highs, and together with silver, it has become a key part of smelter margins. The smelters with recovery capabilities are the ones best placed to absorb lower treatment charges.

With refined inventories at low levels, further smelting production cuts may become increasingly likely, creating upside risk for premiums and leading to more frequent arbitrage opportunities. On slide 15, you can see what we will be watching more closely and where Nexa stands. On treatment charges, lower levels pressure smelters but benefit our mines, so our integration helps offset the impact. On byproducts, our recovery capabilities, especially in sulfuric acid, allows us to capture that value. On prices, zinc is holding above roughly $3,700 per ton, supported by tight concentrate and low stocks. On supply, older mines are declining and new supply seems limited, while Aripuanã is adding more concentrate to our own system.

On trade, the volatile geopolitical landscape reinforces our strategic position as a leading zinc producer in the Americas. In short, a tight concentrate market support our mines, and byproducts support our smelters. That is where our integrated model pays off. Now, let us move to our ESG agenda on slide 16. We continued to advance our ESG priorities in the quarter. On safety, our recordable injury frequency rate improved to 1.34 from 1.50 a year ago. While this is an important improvement, we remain vigilant.

Year to date, we are still above last year's level, so we are reinforcing controls on critical risks, including fatigue monitoring at the Cerro Pasco Complex and the Line of Fire campaign at El Porvenir and Atacocha. In our communities in Peru, we continued our health campaigns and higher education scholarships, and launched a new community contact channel. On circular economy, we are advancing new uses for jarosite, Waelz Aggregate, and pyrite, and the fourth filter's expanded dry stacking tailings capacity at Aripuanã. On climate, we are closely monitoring El Niño. There was no impact in the quarter, and with the support of a specialized consultancy, we have reviewed our preparedness plans.

In Peru, we are building inventories of critical materials and reinforcing drainage and geotechnical inspections. In Brazil, we are focused on water management and wildfire prevention. With that, I will hand it back to Ignacio for the closing remarks.

Ignacio Rosado:Thank you, Rodrigo. Before we open for questions, let me close on slide number 17 with our priorities. First, the transaction. In August, Votorantim signed a definite agreement to sell its controlling stake in Nexa to Boliden. We continue to work constructively with all parties towards closing, which is expected in the first quarter of 2027, subject to customary approvals. Until then, Nexa continues to operate as an independent company, and our strategy, capital allocation priorities, and commitments to our stakeholders are unchanged. Second, Aripuanã. With the plant at 90% utilization in September and mine development accelerating, we are preparing the operation to support higher throughput in 2027.

Aripuanã is one of the key pillars of our long-term cash flow generation. Third, Cerro Pasco. Phase one is on track for mechanical completion in December, with pumping expected to start in the early third quarter of 2027. This is a high-potential polymetallic district, and the project strengthens our integrated position in the district. Fourth, exploration. We have completed about two-thirds of this year's drilling program, which is focused on extending the life of our mines. Underpinning all of these are the same priorities: operating safely, generating free cash flow, allocating capital with discipline and reducing gross debt, always with a view to creating long-term value for our shareholders and the communities where we operate.

We are entering the last quarter of the year with stronger operations, a healthier balance sheet, and a clear set of priorities. With that, let us open the line for questions.

Operator:Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. To ask a question, if you are joined via Zoom, please click the raise hand button. You may also submit your question using the Q&A icon at the bottom of the screen. Please include your name and company when typing your question. For participants joined by phone, press star followed by nine to raise or lower your hand. Once announced, press star followed by six to mute or unmute your microphone. The first question comes from Pedro Melo with Citi. Please go ahead, Pedro.

Pedro Melo:Hi, good morning, and thank you for taking my questions. First, congratulations on the strong results and on stabilizing the fourth tailings filter at Aripuanã, which helped plant utilization reach 90% in September. How should we think about the quarterly required ramp-up pace going forward, supported by these additional mine development CapEx? How should we expect the assets cost run and unit cash costs to evolve as higher processing volumes dilute fixed costs? Second, regarding the Cerro Pasco project integration, you raised the CapEx guidance to $41 million and maintained the target for mechanical completion by this year-end. Could you provide your view as the key operational or risks to starting up tailings pumping next year? These two, please.

Thank you.

Ignacio Rosado:Questions. Good questions. Thank you very much. I will start with Cerro Pasco. As we said, the pumping system is already finishing now in December, and the ramp-up is going to be starting January. We don't see any risks here because we have been following construction very closely, and we have some months in our current tailings dam also that is a cushion for the overlap of the new system. We don't see any risks here, and as we said in the presentation, permits are also on time, and we don't expect any negative news on permits. Cerro Pasco is going really well. For us, this is the first phase.

This is an operational phase that brings, I would say, stability to El Porvenir in terms of still producing and having a new tailings dam, that is the Atacocha tailings dam. For us, what is more important in Cerro Pasco is the future, which is all this mineral that we are finding, how are we going to accommodate it in the next phases? These are things that are coming in 2027 and 2028. Pasco is something that is going really well, and we have recovered from the previous three years, and it's going to be strong in 2027. Regarding Aripuanã, as you said, we are at 90% capacity today. Very important because the fourth filter is performing really well.

It's an automated filter. It's a different technology and has been built in a very efficient and specific way. With this filter and the ones that we had before, we expect to have to deliver 100% of capacity in the coming months. If you remember, the summer, that is a rainy season, was a difficult season for us, but given the capacity of the filter and the filtration we get from the tailings, we do not expect any impacts on production. Coming months, first quarter, we are going to be at full capacity.

Cost is still a tricky one because some of the problems that we face is that this operation is far away from any other city, and the costs related to bringing all these materials to the operation are higher. Then finding the right people to work in Aripuanã is key for us, and the rotation is high. It is a process for us, and that is why costs have been higher. Having said that, with a full throughput and the measures we are taking to mitigate all these things that are affecting cost, we are expecting to start reducing the cost in the third quarter and in the next year.

This operation towards the end of next year should be similar to the other Brazilian operations, to Vazante, but it is going to be a process for us. Having said that as well, if you see all this operating performance of Aripuanã is now a mine. If you see any KPI of mine development, of the plant, of recoveries, of quality of concentrate, of quality of tailings, is really, really getting there. It has been a process. It has been a very difficult process, but now we are starting to have a normal mine. Now we are working on profitability, on reducing the costs. We are on a right track to do that.

Again, with all the potential that Aripuanã has, we believe that in the next two, three years, Aripuanã is going to bring a lot of profitability. It is a solid advance that we have, and we are expecting this solid profitability in the next three years.

Pedro Melo:Thank you.

Operator:Once again, if you would like to ask a question, please click the raise hand button at the bottom of your screen. Now, I would like to turn the call over to the company for the reading questions. Please go ahead.

Rodrigo Cammarosano:Thank you, operator. We have one question from the audience. It comes from Alex Emery from S&P Global. The question is, "Production of most metals was down year-over-year at Nexa Peruvian operations. Apart from lower grade at Cerro Lindo, were there other factors that constrained output in Q3? And the company expects operations to return to normal levels in Q4?

Ignacio Rosado:Yeah. No, thank you for the question again. Yes, Cerro Lindo is having lower grades, and this is expected in the life of mine plan and in the reserves. Specifically in the third quarter, we have some development problems that reduce a little bit the tonnage that we extract from the mines. This is not going to be the case in the fourth quarter. Fourth quarter is going to be a strong quarter, and this combined with a stronger quarter also in Cerro Pasco, we believe that we are going to be right on track on the projections that we have.

That is why we convey the message that the fourth quarter in the Peruvian mines and in the Brazilian mines are going to be much strong.

Operator:This concludes our question and answer session. I would now like to hand the call over to Mr. Ignacio Rosado for his closing remarks. Mr. Rosado, please go ahead.

Ignacio Rosado:Again, thank you all for attending the call. This has been still a very challenging quarter, but we have been delivering as expected. As we said before, the fourth quarter is going to be a stronger one. That combined with the current prices, we believe that our cash flow generation is going to be also, in the projections, very strong. I would like to comment also that we are starting to interact in general terms with the senior management of Boliden. We know them very well. They are very senior and very talented. This closing process is going as expected.

We believe it's going to close in the first quarter of next year, and we are looking forward to start interacting with them more and to start integrating with this know-how of them, our know-how, and all those quality teams all together working for the benefit of Boliden and Nexa as well. Thank you very much. Thank you, and we will speak in the first half of next year regarding our closing results for the year. Have a good day.

Operator:Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. We appreciate your participation and interest in Nexa. You may now disconnect.

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Nexa (NEXA) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript was originally published by The Motley Fool