This article first appeared on GuruFocus .
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Net Revenues (9M 2026):Grew 1.1% year-on-year to approximately $2.68 billion.
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Net Revenues (Q3 2026):Up 1.3% to $942 million, driven by Merchant Solutions.
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Underlying Revenue Growth:Approximately 4% in both Q3 and year-to-date.
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EBITDA (9M 2026):$1.4 billion, up 0.3% year-on-year; margin of 52.3%.
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EBITDA (Q3 2026):Rose 0.6% to $530 million; margin of 56.3%.
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Merchant Solutions Revenue:Q3 $548 million (growth of 1.6%, improving from -1.4% in Q1 and -0.2% in Q2); 9M total $1.52 billion; underlying growth ~3%.
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Issuing Solutions Revenue:Q3 up 1.2% to approximately $300 million; 9M approximately $872 million, up 2.4%.
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Digital Banking Solutions Revenue:9M up 3% to $283 million; Q3 broadly stable at $94 million, up 0.3%.
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Total Costs (9M 2026):Increased 2% to approximately $1.28 billion.
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Total Costs (Q3 2026):Approximately $412 million, up 2.2%.
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Personnel Costs:Up 3.8% year-to-date, driven by 2025 salary increases and higher average headcount.
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Operating Costs:Up just 0.6% despite volume growth and inflationary pressure.
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Value of Managed Transactions:Up just shy of 3% in 9M (Merchant Solutions); up 6.4% year-on-year in 9M (Issuing Solutions).
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Net Leverage:2.6x.
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Dividend:$350 million paid in May.
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2026 Guidance:Net revenue growth broadly in line with 2025; EBITDA broadly stable in absolute terms; excess cash generation of approximately EUR750 million.
Release Date: November 05, 2026
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript .
Positive Points
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Revenue growth accelerated in Q3 2026 to 1.3% year-over-year, driven by Merchant Solutions, with underlying growth of approximately 4%.
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Merchant Solutions showed clear improvement, with revenue growth progressing from -1.4% in Q1 to +1.6% in Q3, and further acceleration expected in Q4.
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Cost discipline was strong, with total costs increasing only 2% year-to-date despite inflation and higher volumes, well below the initial 5-6% guidance.
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Nexi SpA ( NEXXY ) maintained a 100% success rate in renewing bank contracts over the last couple of years, avoiding severe financial impacts.
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The company was selected by the ECB to provide digital euro network connectivity, positioning it as a critical infrastructure provider and opening new revenue opportunities.
Negative Points
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Reported revenue growth remains muted at 1.1% for the first nine months, with a significant gap versus underlying growth due to previously lost bank contracts.
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EBITDA growth was modest at 0.3% year-to-date and 0.6% in Q3, reflecting continued investments and margin pressure.
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Germany faces macroeconomic challenges, particularly in the hospitality sector, with high insolvencies and softness in large/key accounts impacting Merchant Solutions.
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The gap between reported and underlying growth is expected to persist through 2027, with convergence only anticipated in 2028.
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Competitive pressure and market share erosion in some geographies, such as Poland e-commerce, continue to weigh on underlying growth.
Q & A Highlights
Q: Can you confirm whether Merchant Solutions will reaccelerate in Q4, and walk through the moving pieces behind the step-down in Merchant Solutions EBITDA margin in the first half? A: CFO Piergiorgio Pedron confirmed Nexi expects a further acceleration in Merchant Solutions in Q4, helped by a lower impact from bank contract losses and positive trends across geographies, noting the Q3 acceleration came despite a weaker-than-budgeted Germany. On margins, he said Nexi is still investing in strategic initiatives such as the direct sales force, which carries a time lag before benefits appear, and that roughly 25%-30% of Merchant Solutions revenues are project-based with different margins, so small quarter-to-quarter variances should not be over-read.
Q: When do you expect reported and underlying growth to converge, and what improves in 2027? A: CFO Piergiorgio Pedron said the gap between underlying and reported growth should remain in 2027, broadly similar to 2026, and close in 2028, as the bank contract effects shift from Merchant Solutions to Issuing. CEO Bernardo Mingrone added that 2027 should be broadly similar to 2026, with benefits from sales force investments (15-month payback), ISV convergence, new products and merchant financing, but no macro tailwind or relief from bank contract effects until 2028.
Q: How material do you expect digital euro-related revenues to become, and will margins be above or below the group average? A: CFO Piergiorgio Pedron said it is hard to quantify, but the digital euro launches in 2029 and Nexi sees a significant opportunity to provide system-wide solutions to hundreds of European banks and to act as a PSP enabling merchants to accept the digital euro. He said current infrastructure-type work carries margins below the Digital Banking Solutions average, while a future retail product could carry higher margins, but it is too early to make assumptions.
Q: What trends are you seeing across markets, and which cost efficiency measures will benefit 2027 OpEx? A: CFO Piergiorgio Pedron cited generalized volume growth across geographies driven by cash-to-card conversion, with Italy showing three consecutive quarters of sequential Merchant Solutions growth, the Nordics improving sequentially with solid Q3 Merchant Solutions growth and e-commerce progress, and CEE posting its strongest Merchant Solutions growth of the year in Q3 despite Polish e-commerce headwinds. On costs, he said all 2026 cost growth stems from carry-forward effects of 2025 actions, the May reorganization and cost containment initiatives are delivering material results without cutting strategic investment, and no big acceleration in the cost base is expected in Q4.
Q: What gets Merchant Solutions beyond the current ~3% underlying growth, and what are the economics of bank contract renewals? A: CFO Piergiorgio Pedron pointed to ISVs, direct sales and e-commerce, noting double-digit e-commerce growth in Q3, consistent hiring in direct sales with KPIs monitored, and positive signs across all three, though Merchant Solutions is a roughly EUR2.1-2.2 billion business so effects build gradually. CEO Bernardo Mingrone said Nexi will not comment on individual renegotiations; simple extensions tend to come with steep discounts, but Nexi aims to broaden products and services to offset this, citing an ongoing renewal with a German bank where lower unit pricing on larger volumes is offset by more services and higher overall margins.
Q: Is there upside to the 2026 EBITDA guidance given cost savings so far? A: CFO Piergiorgio Pedron said Nexi is very comfortable it will keep cost growth well below the 5%-6% outlined at the Capital Markets Day, with the Q3 and year-to-date trend broadly continuing in Q4, and is confident of delivering the EBITDA guidance. He cautioned it is too early to say whether Nexi will beat it, since Q4 represents 26%-27% of annual sales and small revenue swings flow straight to EBITDA.
Q: Could Issuing Solutions trend improve in Q4 as the Banco BPM contract rundown plays out, and what is the free cash flow dynamic? A: CFO Piergiorgio Pedron said the major bank contract impact was expected in the second half, Q3 already showed deceleration versus Q1 and Q2, and no dramatic increase is expected in Q4, though Issuing is a roughly EUR300 million quarterly business where small changes should not be over-read. CEO Bernardo Mingrone said Q3 cash flow was affected by September tax payments and a higher tax burden this year, but first-half cash generation of EUR400 million positions Nexi well to meet or exceed its target, with Q4 the strongest cash quarter due to the festive season.
Q: How do you address competitive threats in German hospitality, and could they spill over to Italy? A: CFO Piergiorgio Pedron said most of the German hospitality headwind, about one-third of Nexi's German business, is macroeconomic, with record insolvencies in the sector, and Nexi also deliberately exited a couple of large customers to manage risk, one of which later failed. He said Nexi is a challenger in Germany with roughly 10%-15% market share and sees competition there similar to other geographies, so he is not particularly worried about spillover to Italy or the Nordics. CEO Bernardo Mingrone added Nexi owns vertical capabilities such as OrderBird in German restaurants and partners with Planet in hotels.
Q: What is the outlook for Banco BPM's Issuing migration and the macro environment versus your March assumptions? A: CEO Bernardo Mingrone said Banco BPM's Issuing headwind was expected to start in Q3 and Q4, but the bank is finding the processing migration difficult, which benefits Nexi. He said the overall environment is worse than hoped in March, mainly due to Germany, but slower Banco migration partly offsets the weaker macro, and competition, while present, is not particularly increasing, so Nexi still expects top-line growth in line with last year per guidance, possibly with a different mix.
Q: What does a higher cost of capital mean for industry structure and competition in Merchant Solutions? A: CEO Bernardo Mingrone said he hopes a higher cost of capital makes the sector more selective, favoring companies with sound balance sheets, positive cash generation and investment-grade ratings over loss-making, cash-burning competitors. He acknowledged this is more a wish than evidence so far, but said it reinforces Nexi's determination to maintain balance sheet strength, investment-grade status and its deleveraging
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript .
