NGL Energy Partners has delivered a very strong run over the past several years, which puts fresh focus on whether the current unit price lines up with the cash the partnership is expected to generate. With recent unit performance and portfolio moves in the background, the key question now is how the market price compares with what its cash flows can reasonably support.
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Over the past 5 years, NGL Energy Partners has returned about 4.5x, which raises a clear question about how much of that gain is backed by the underlying cash generation of the business.
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Alliance Energy Services' purchase of 18 propane terminals from NGL Energy Partners in May 2025 changes how the partnership is positioned in propane logistics, which can affect both future cash inflows and the timing of those cash flows.
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Prefer to judge NGL Energy Partners on sales? See what NGL Energy Partners's 0.5x P/S says about the price .
For investors, the debate is whether NGL Energy Partners' current price around US$14.81 is adequately supported by its intrinsic value estimate based on projected cash flows.
If you want to test the same cash flow question across a wider field than NGL Energy Partners, you can run the numbers on the 33 high quality undervalued stocks .
Is NGL Energy Partners a Bargain on Cash Flow?
The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) approach here uses NGL Energy Partners' own projected cash generation to anchor the valuation. Latest twelve month free cash flow sits at about $169.5 million, with the model expecting a period of uneven performance that includes a year of reduced cash flow before a return to positive figures and then relatively modest growth.
This pattern means the DCF outcome leans heavily on NGL Energy Partners' ability to keep cash flows positive and steady rather than chasing steep expansion. The propane terminal sale to Alliance Energy Services in May 2025 helps explain why the market may hesitate to fully reflect the DCF outcome in the current US$14.81 unit price, since investors still need clarity on how the reshaped asset base will support future cash generation. Find out what NGL Energy Partners could be worth using our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) estimate .
The NGL Energy Partners Narrative: What Would Justify Today's Price?
Simply Wall St Narratives pick up where the NGL Energy Partners valuation puzzle leaves off and explain which paths for growth, margins and earnings would need to hold for the units to be worth materially more or materially less than today's price. Rather than stopping at a single DCF figure or ratio, these narratives unpack the future that number relies on so you can follow how NGL Energy Partners' actual results compare with those assumptions over time on the Community page.
A written, number driven view on NGL Energy Partners is useful right now because it clarifies the cash flow assumptions that investors are implicitly making about the business after the propane terminal sale to Alliance Energy Services and the wider propane market growth story. It provides a clear yardstick to revisit as fresh data arrives and as it becomes clearer whether that infrastructure deal and broader propane demand trends support the cash profile currently reflected in the unit price.
Share your own Narrative for NGL Energy Partners and set out the assumptions behind your valuation.
One more angle on NGL Energy Partners that could shift the story
Cash flow models only tell part of the story for NGL Energy Partners, because the people setting priorities and how they are rewarded can strongly shape what happens to that cash. See who runs NGL Energy Partners and how they are paid .
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include NGL .
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