Nordex (XTRA:NDX1) has secured its first New Zealand contract with a 192 MW turbine order from Mercury, which includes a 30-year service agreement and plans for long-term local collaboration.
Recent moves in Nordex's share price have been mixed, with a 1-day share price return of 1.54% and a 7-day share price return that declined 3.95%. At the same time, the year-to-date share price return of 22.01% and a 1-year total shareholder return of 67.06% point to momentum that has been building over a longer stretch as investors weigh this New Zealand contract alongside reaffirmed 2026 sales guidance of €8.2b to €9.0b.
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Nordex trades at a sizeable discount to both analyst targets and intrinsic value estimates after a strong 1 year run. Is this caution about execution and cyclicality sensible, or is the gap too wide?
Most Popular Narrative: 26.9% Undervalued
On the widely followed narrative, Nordex screens as undervalued, with a fair value of €50.52 against the last close at €36.92. This puts the current discount front and center for anyone weighing the recent New Zealand win and broader guidance comments.
Execution on large and growing backlogs, combined with improved project delivery and stable pricing, is already driving better-than-expected EBITDA (+64% YoY in Q2) and positive net income. Management is guiding for ongoing EBITDA margin expansion toward 8%, setting up for higher net profits and free cash flow.
See why 17 investors see Nordex as 27% undervalued .
Result: Fair Value of €50.52 (UNDERVALUED)
Still, the bullish Nordex story depends on heavy exposure to Europe and on analysts' 2029 earnings assumptions. This could unravel if policy or execution disappoints.
Find out about the key risks to this Nordex narrative .
Next Steps
Curious whether this optimism around Nordex matches your own assessment of the situation and the risks. Compare the data side by side and stress test your thesis against the 4 key rewards .
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include NDX1.DE .
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