One of Wall Street's biggest bulls just doubled down on stocks. Here are his top trades for the next year.

• Mike Wilson, the CIO of Morgan Stanley, just unveiled his mid-year 2027 stock forecast.

• He lays out three reasons why he sees a more-than-10% increase for the S&P 500.

• Wilson also lays out several investing forecasts, recommendations, and allocation moves.

Mike Wilson , the CIO and chief US equity strategist at Morgan Stanley , is no stranger to sticking his neck out.

He was one of the few bearish strategists on Wall Street in 2022, a year that saw a bear market in stocks and 19% overall decline. More recently, Wilson stayed bullish throughout the Iran-war sell-off, and was proven right as the S&P 500 made up losses in a matter of weeks.

The benchmark has continued climbing to record highs since, moving closer to Wilson's year-end price target of 7,800 — one of the most bullish calls on Wall Street.

Speaking of S&P 500 price targets, Wilson just rolled out a new one, for mid-year 2027. He sees the index reaching 8,300 by then, a roughly 11% increase from current levels. Given his track record of accuracy in recent years, his latest commentary is must-read material.

Let's unpack three main factors Wilson sees driving the S&P 500 ever higher:

1. Stronger-than-expected earnings

Wilson points out that the median first-quarter earnings surprise for S&P 500 companies has been 6%, the highest in four years. And while AI-focused hyperscalers and chipmakers have been a big part of this, he says other sectors have gotten in on the action.

For the more zoomed out S&P 1500, Wilson says forward EPS growth has also accelerated to 12%, up from 8% at the start of the year.

The blue line in the chart below shows the upward earnings growth trend in action. Not-so-coincidentally, that's been correlated with a similar rise in the S&P 500.

2. A wartime valuation reset

When stocks reached their Iran-war lows in late March, the damage in the S&P 500 was a 9% drop, a move considered moderate by many strategists.

Wilson argues that — under the surface of the market — the damage was deeper, with the S&P's forward P/E multiple squeezed by 18%. He says that, in turn, helped to reset valuations at more reasonable levels before a sharp recovery.

3. We're in the middle of a rolling recovery

This catalyst is a holdover from Wilson's 2026 forecast from last year. He's actually been talking about it since the Liberation Day lows of April 2025, when he believes a " rolling recovery " began.

Wilson is essentially arguing that the US suffered a stealth recession that concluded with Liberation Day. Now he thinks we're still in the early stages of a bounce back that will juice earnings revisions and lift stocks.