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Persimmon's central fair value has been trimmed from £15.71 to £15.32 per share, while recent Street price targets range from a 220 GBp cut in one report to smaller upward moves such as £16.00 to £16.10 and £14.80 to £15.14. These mixed price target shifts reflect a split between analysts who see enough delivery potential to justify slightly higher targets and others who are more focused on execution risk and softer revenue or margin assumptions. Read on to see what this evolving narrative could mean for how you track Persimmon from here.
Stay updated as the Fair Value for Persimmon shifts by adding it to your watchlist or portfolio . Alternatively, explore our Community to discover new perspectives on Persimmon.
What Wall Street Has Been Saying
🐂 Bullish Takeaways
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Morgan Stanley has kept an Overweight stance on Persimmon, with its target at 1,610 GBp. This sits toward the upper end of the recent £14.80 to £16.10 range and underpins the higher end of current valuation views.
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Barclays holds an Equal Weight stance with a 1,514 GBp target, suggesting some analysts still see room for value if Persimmon executes on its plans and delivers in line with existing assumptions.
🐻 Bearish Takeaways
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Morgan Stanley has also issued a separate report cutting its Persimmon target by 220 GBp, highlighting more cautious assumptions around delivery risk and potential pressure on revenue or margins.
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The spread between the trimmed central fair value of £15.32 and the lower end of recent targets reflects concern from some analysts that execution missteps could weigh on the share price relative to more optimistic scenarios.
Do your thoughts align with the Bull or Bear Analysts? Perhaps you think there's more to the story. Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives!
We've flagged 1 risk for Persimmon. See which could impact your investment.
What's in the News
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Persimmon issued production guidance for full year 2026, targeting 12,000 to 12,500 completions, with management noting this is subject to stable market conditions.
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The company reported a current private forward sales position of £1.25b for 2026, compared with £1.15b for 2024, linked to progress in its forward order book.
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Management highlighted that the forward order book underpins the 2026 completions target, providing a reference point for tracking Persimmon's future volume expectations.
How This Changes the Fair Value For Persimmon
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Fair Value was trimmed from £15.71 to £15.32 per share, a reduction of about 2.4% in the central estimate.
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Revenue Growth was revised from 5.37% to 4.90%.
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Net Profit Margin moved from 9.93% to 9.51% on assumed future earnings.
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The Future P/E was adjusted from 14.94x to 15.44x.
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The Discount Rate was set slightly higher, from 8.77% to 8.82%.
Never Miss an Update: Follow The Narrative
Narratives link a company's story, like its markets, projects, and risks, to a financial forecast and fair value. They update automatically when new data, news, or analyst estimates change.
Head over to the Simply Wall St Community and follow the Narrative on Persimmon to stay up to date on:
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How UK housing demand, planning reforms, and an expanded outlet pipeline connect to Persimmon's potential for volume and revenue growth.
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The role of its land bank, off site manufacturing, and vertical integration in supporting margins and future earnings capacity.
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Key risks from elevated build costs, affordability pressures for first time buyers, regulatory costs, and execution on new construction methods and safety spending.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include PSN.L .
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
