Will Phase III Colon Cancer Trial Change Akeso Stock Narrative

• Akeso completed a follow-on equity offering of 20,000,000 ordinary shares at HK$97.76 per share, raising about HK$1.96b, after recently reporting first patient dosing in a Phase III trial of cadonilimab in perioperative MSI H or dMMR colon cancer.

• The capital raise strengthens Akeso's funding for late-stage R&D. The new colon cancer indication tests whether its bispecific antibody strategy can extend beyond existing gastric, lung, and cervical use cases into earlier-stage, potentially curative settings.

• We will now see how Akeso's investment narrative could be affected by this Phase III perioperative colon cancer trial launch.

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Akeso Investment Narrative Recap

To own Akeso, you need to believe its bispecific antibody platform and broad late stage pipeline can translate heavy R&D spend and current losses into a larger, durable oncology franchise. The recent HK$1.96b follow on raise modestly improves the funding picture for that plan but does not change the need for disciplined cash use.

The key near term swing factor remains execution in late stage trials for cadonilimab and ivonescimab, including timely recruitment and clean safety data. The biggest risk stays the same. Akeso is still loss making and concentrated in a few flagship assets, so any clinical setback or pricing pressure could weigh heavily on the operating trajectory.

The most relevant update for this equity raise is the initiation of the Phase III COMPASSION 40 trial of cadonilimab in perioperative MSI H or dMMR colon cancer. That study extends Akeso's core PD 1/CTLA 4 asset into an earlier, potentially curative setting, which could broaden the therapy's clinical footprint if data support it.

Operationally, that new indication adds another large, complex trial to an already busy program, and it comes as the business is carrying operating and EBITDA losses. The fresh capital cushions execution risk to an extent, yet it also raises the bar on trial quality, timelines, and eventual readouts because more of Akeso's story now leans on cadonilimab delivering across multiple stages of colorectal disease.

Akeso's current projections estimate revenue of CN¥12.0b and earnings of CN¥3.2b by 2029. This is based on an assumed 51.4% yearly revenue growth and an earnings shift of about CN¥4.2b from the current earnings, which reflect a CN¥967.2m loss.