Key Takeaways
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Rocket Lab rose 15.4% on Friday to $53 ahead of Monday's report, but it is still down 30% over three months.
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Analysts expect revenue of $255.7 million, up 66%, while guidance points to a wider adjusted EBITDA loss than last quarter.
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Neutron's debut slipped to 2027, and CFO Adam Spice sold $17.3 million of stock in roughly a month.
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Firefly signed a $1.3 billion engine deal while SpaceX's strong quarter lifted the sector, raising the stakes for Neutron.
Rocket Lab ( RKLB:NASDAQ )jumped 15.4% on Friday to $53. That bounce comes after a rough stretch: the stock is still 30% lower over three months and 65% below its 52-week high of $151.
The damage mostly traces to October 15 , when Rocket Lab pushed NeutroPn's first launch into 2027 . The medium-lift rocket is the company's bet on the bigger launch market.
Competitors aren't waiting. Firefly Aerospace ( FLY:NASDAQ )just signed a $1.3 billion deal to supply engines for AST SpaceMobile's new Blacklift rocket.
The leader in the field is pulling further ahead too. SpaceX ( SPCX:NASDAQ )posted strong third-quarter results in October, and listed space stocks rallied on the news.
Rocket Lab reports on Monday.
The Neutron clock reset
Rocket Lab found air pockets in the carbon-fiber layers of a first-stage propellant tank dome. That pushed the debut out of the fourth quarter.
Analysts now expect a first flight around the second quarter of 2027, and the first paying mission closer to year-end. Management has said adjusted EBITDA should turn positive the quarter after Neutron's first successful flight.
Expectations for Monday:
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Revenue of $255.7 million, up 66% from $155.1 million
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An EPS loss of $0.07, wider than $0.03 a year ago
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An adjusted EBITDA loss of $17 million to $23 million, per company guidance
Revenue has kept compounding through the delays…
The top line is in good shape. The question for Monday is what the delay does to costs.
TIKR tracks 21 analysts on Rocket Lab. How many say "Buy"?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Rocket Lab, along with Wall Street's revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Rocket Lab's Analyst Ratings
Space Systems carries the load
Spacecraft and components do most of the work today. Space Systems made up 81% of second-quarter revenue of $234.1 million.
Contracts keep coming in, too. A record $266 million Space Force missile defense deal arrived in July, and Kepler Communications signed on for Neutron launches in August.
Still, Firefly's single $1.3 billion engine deal is nearly five times the size of Rocket Lab's biggest military award.
Backlog sits at $2.36 billion, so revenue visibility is strong. Turning that backlog into profit depends on Neutron.
Paying 26x sales for a delay
At 26.3x forward sales, Rocket Lab is priced as a future launch giant. Its trailing operating margin is negative 27.6%, and gross margin is 37.3%.
The balance sheet buys time. Rocket Lab holds about $2.25 billion more cash than debt.
Insider selling won't help the mood. CFO Adam Spice sold $9.9 million of stock in early October and another $7.4 million this month.
My take: The core business is growing fast and the contract book is real. But this valuation assumes Neutron flies and wins share against SpaceX and a newly funded Firefly, and the delay pushes that test out by at least six months. The average Street target near $102 implies 92% upside, which looks generous until Neutron is on the pad.
Monday's report is the checkpoint. Watch the EBITDA loss against guidance and any firm Neutron date for 2027.
So what is Rocket Lab stock actually worth?
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