Key Takeaways
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Rocket Lab reports after the close on Monday, Nov. 9, after a $110.1 million free cash outflow in the second quarter.
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Its $2.39 billion of June 30 cash covers years of burn, though part is set aside for Iridium.
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Diluted shares rose 22% in a year, and Iridium would get the most shares the terms allow at this week's prices.
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Rocket Lab needs to hold the burn and date Neutron's first flight.
Rocket Lab( RKLB:NASDAQ ) sold off with AI stocks on Thursday, Nov. 5, with no news of its own, and reports third-quarter results after the close on Monday, Nov. 9. For holders, the question is whether it will need to sell more stock at these prices.
The same question hangs over AST SpaceMobile( ASTS:NASDAQ ), which also reports Monday, and Firefly Aerospace( FLY:NASDAQ ), which reports Tuesday. Both have gone back to investors for cash this year.
Plenty of Growth to Pay For
Wall Street expects Rocket Lab's revenue to nearly triple from 2025 to 2028 .
The Cash Is There, but Not All of It Is Free
Rocket Lab had $2.39 billion of cash and securities at June 30. In September it sold 29.3 million shares for $1.94 billion, which, with some of its existing cash, leaves the roughly $8 billion Iridium Communications deal fully financed .
Free cash flow was negative $371 million over the 12 months to June 30. The June cash covers about six years at that pace, or five and a half at the second quarter's rate, before Iridium takes its share. CFO Adam Spice expects positive adjusted EBITDA the quarter after Neutron's first successful flight, and positive free cash flow 18 to 24 months after it.
The burn is growing, though, and its source has moved.
Capital spending peaked in late 2025. Operations used $84.1 million in the second quarter, against $23.2 million a year earlier, and inventory took $73.3 million of operating cash in the first half. Management tied that to building Neutron vehicles ahead and restocking Mynaric's supply chain, for a first flight that slipped into 2027 on Oct. 14 with no new date.
Shareholders Have Covered the Gap
The diluted share count has risen every quarter for three years.
It rose 22% in the year to June 30, to 630 million. It's also getting far less per share: about $136 in May, about $66 in September.
More is already signed. Iridium holders get $27 in cash plus Rocket Lab stock per share. At a 10-day average price of $67.50 or less, each converts into 0.4000 Rocket Lab shares, the maximum. The stock has traded below that all week. The ratio isn't set until closing in mid-2027, but today it sits at the top.
TIKR Tracks 22 Analysts on Rocket Lab. How Many Say "Buy"?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Rocket Lab, along with Wall Street's revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Rocket Lab's Analyst Ratings
AST and Firefly Face the Same Test
AST's needs are far bigger. It had about $2.7 billion of cash at June 30 and raised $1.15 billion in convertible notes in July, yet guided to $350 million to $425 million of third-quarter capital spending. It has 12 BlueBirds in orbit, of the 45 to 60 it needs for continuous service.
Firefly is building a bigger rocket too, Eclipse, and sold stock for $181.6 million of net proceeds in the second quarter, when revenue hit a record $117.7 million .
What Rocket Lab Has to Show on Monday
Rocket Lab guides to third-quarter revenue of $250 million to $265 million and an adjusted EBITDA loss of $17 million to $23 million. I'd watch free cash flow: an outflow at or below $110.1 million would show the burn stopped growing this quarter, and a firm Neutron quarter would show when the 18-to-24-month clock could start.
On today's numbers, Rocket Lab can get Neutron flying without another stock sale. The dilution I'd worry about is the Iridium stock, priced in mid-2027. If Neutron slips again, that cushion thins fast.
So what is Rocket Lab stock actually worth?
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