Key Takeaways
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Rocket Lab shares fell 12% today in a sell-off led by AI and chip stocks, with no news from the company.
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Rocket Lab has no AI compute business, yet it fell further than SpaceX, as Intuitive Machines and Kratos sold off too.
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Analysts still expect Rocket Lab's revenue to more than double from 2025 to 2027.
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Monday's third-quarter report, and any new Neutron launch date, is the next test.
Rocket Lab ( RKLB:NASDAQ )fell 12% today with no news from the company. A sell-off in AI and chip stocks sent the Nasdaq-100's QQQ down 6%, and AI researcher Gary Marcus summed up the morning on X: "Absolute slaughter."
Space stocks went down with the rest, including Intuitive Machines ( LUNR:NASDAQ )and Kratos Defense & Security Solutions ( KTOS:NASDAQ ). Neither had news of its own.
Sold like an AI stock
Rocket Lab even fell further than SpaceX, which is down 9%. That's odd: SpaceX's AI compute business brought in more than half of its third-quarter revenue , and Rocket Lab doesn't have one.
Analysts still expect its revenue to keep climbing:
That's $1.33 billion expected in 2027, more than double 2025's $602 million. Analysts have no reason to cut that over a day of AI selling.
The rest of space got hit, too
Intuitive Machines fell 13% after a record second quarter. Revenue was $206 million, more than four times the year before, and backlog reached $1.8 billion. It guides to $900 million to $1 billion of 2026 revenue, and next week's report has to show that backlog turning into sales.
Kratos fell 8%, and it has earnings behind it. Second-quarter revenue rose 30.5% to $458.8 million, and management raised its 2026 revenue guide to $1.75 billion to $1.81 billion. But at 42x forward earnings as of the last close, it's priced for growth too. Its third-quarter report has to land inside the 19% to 25% organic growth it guided.
Still not cheap
Rocket Lab traded at 27.8x forward sales on Monday, down from 89.2x in late May:
That's still above its five-year average of 20.9x, even after today's drop.
TIKR tracks 22 analysts on Rocket Lab. How many say "Buy"?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Rocket Lab, along with Wall Street's revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Rocket Lab's Analyst Ratings
Monday is the real test
Neutron is the question for Monday's call. In October, Rocket Lab pushed Neutron's first launch into 2027 , and it gave no new date.
Nothing about Rocket Lab's business changed today. But the stock still isn't cheap, so I'd want a Neutron date on Monday's call before buying this dip.
Of course, if AI stocks keep sliding, Rocket Lab may slide with them.
So what is Rocket Lab stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR's valuation model and see what Rocket Lab could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It's free to use.
