Rogers Communications came into its Q3 2026 report with a stock that has barely moved over the past week and is modestly down over the last month, trading at CA$45.36 at Friday's close. The headline this quarter is not flashy revenue growth. The real story is a sharp reset in capital spending that produced roughly CA$1.3b to CA$1.4b of free cash flow and a step down in leverage to about 3.7 times.
For a telecom group long viewed through a heavy debt lens, that surge in cash generation matters more than the muted near term share performance.
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Q3 2026 Earnings Summary
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Total Revenue (Q3 2026 vs. Q3 2025):CA$5,443m vs. CA$5,348m (up about 1.8%)
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Net Income, Excl. Extra Items (Q3 2026 vs. Q3 2025):CA$482m vs. CA$5,754m (very large decline due to prior year one off gain)
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Basic EPS (Q3 2026 vs. Q3 2025):CA$0.89 vs. CA$10.66 (very large decline, reflecting prior year one off gain)
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Adjusted EBITDA Margin (Wireless & Cable, Q3 2026):Wireless about 68% and Cable about 59% (both modestly higher year on year)
Rogers is set to sell a minority stake in its now fully-owned sports and media business. Ask Charlie what Rogers will do with its sports stake sale .
Rogers Free Cash Flow Story Meets Early Milestones
The bullish pitch hinges on Rogers Communications turning lower capital intensity and sports scale into a free cash flow engine that outpaces earlier expectations.
"Some analysts expect Rogers Communications to convert its lower capital intensity and sports and media scale into higher free cash flow that continues to run ahead of earlier expectations."
Q3 puts some proof on the table. Capex intensity dropped to 9.6%, free cash flow reached about CA$1.3b to CA$1.4b, and leverage moved to roughly 3.7x. Media revenue grew 9% with EBITDA up 12% and full MLSE ownership now in place, so the sports and media leg of the thesis is at least structurally set up for the planned 2027 minority sale.
One Narrative has put a figure on that disagreement. → See the Narrative with its higher Fair Value, assumptions and all .
Rogers Bear Case: Weak Wireless Demands More From Sports
The bearish view says Rogers Communications is starving its networks just as wireless growth slows and regulators squeeze pricing power.
"Although Rogers Communications is guiding to a structurally lower capital intensity with capital expenditures near 12% and higher free cash flow, the decision to cancel or defer certain network expansion projects in rural and wireline markets because returns are uneconomic raises the risk that future revenue growth and earnings will fall short of what this leaner investment profile assumes."
Q3 results partially echo that concern. Wireless service revenue and ARPU both fell, and postpaid net adds were soft, even if management frames this as discipline. Lower capex and record free cash flow did help leverage, yet telecom growth looks thin. This increases pressure on sports and media monetization to carry more of the earnings story.
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Companies discussed in this article include RCI-B.TO .
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