Sandisk ( SNDK:NASDAQ )shares fell 13.47% to $1,150.89 on Friday, October 30, a day after the company beat its own guidance and guided above consensus. The trigger came from Tokyo: fab partner Kioxia ( 285A )guided below estimates and warned the AI-driven surge in flash prices is fading, Bloomberg reported .
The selling ran through the memory chain. Micron ( MU:NASDAQ )slid more than 5%, and Intel ( INTC:NASDAQ )fell 28.58% after a weak fourth-quarter guide tied to PC demand squeezed by memory costs. Sandisk's own numbers show why Kioxia's warning hit so hard: pricing has stopped doing most of the work.
What Sandisk Reported
-
Revenue of $11.03 billion, up 23% sequentially, above the $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion guide
-
Non-GAAP EPS of $49.51 against a $44 to $46 guide
-
Second-quarter guide of $12.2 billion to $12.6 billion, about 12% growth at the midpoint
-
An 8-for-1 split, with split-adjusted trading from November 20 (no change to value)
Sandisk's Price Engine Is Slowing Fast
Revenue jumped 51% last quarter, and management said about two-thirds came from higher prices. That's roughly 34 points of growth from pricing alone.
This quarter, CFO Luis Visoso put pricing at about 40% of a 23% gain, or roughly 9 points. He guided only "modest" price increases from here. Consumer revenue fell 29% to $397 million as buyers balked at higher prices, the same squeeze Intel described.
Pricing's contribution shrank by about three-quarters in one quarter.
TIKR Tracks 25 Analysts on Sandisk. How Many Say "Buy"?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Sandisk, along with Wall Street's revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Sandisk's Analyst Ratings
What the Selloff Already Prices In
The two-day drop of about 18% erased roughly $39 billion of value. Contracts cover about half of fiscal 2027 bits and two-thirds of fiscal 2028, so a large share of volume is already spoken for. Sandisk also bought back about 3.2 million shares for $5 billion, around $1,560 each, about 36% above Friday's close.
Where the Street Sees Sandisk Going
Consensus sits at $12.50 billion for the December quarter, then dips 0.8% in March before growing about 8.7% and 7.4%. That's a pause, not a downturn. If Kioxia is right about pricing, the March quarter is where it shows first.
So What Is Sandisk Stock Actually Worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR's valuation model and see what SNDK stock could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It's free to use.
