The most recent earnings report from Saturn Oil & Gas Inc.( TSE:SOIL ) was disappointing for shareholders. However, our analysis suggests that the soft headline numbers are getting counterbalanced by some positive underlying factors.
Examining Cashflow Against Saturn Oil & Gas' Earnings
Many investors haven't heard of the accrual ratio from cashflow, but it is actually a useful measure of how well a company's profit is backed up by free cash flow (FCF) during a given period. The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.
Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.
For the year to March 2026, Saturn Oil & Gas had an accrual ratio of -0.10. Therefore, its statutory earnings were quite a lot less than its free cashflow. In fact, it had free cash flow of CA$193m in the last year, which was a lot more than its statutory profit of CA$32.4m. Saturn Oil & Gas shareholders are no doubt pleased that free cash flow improved over the last twelve months. However, as we will discuss below, we can see that the company's accrual ratio has been impacted by its tax situation.
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
An Unusual Tax Situation
Moving on from the accrual ratio, we note that Saturn Oil & Gas profited from a tax benefit which contributed CA$6.4m to profit. This is of course a bit out of the ordinary, given it is more common for companies to be paying tax than receiving tax benefits! The receipt of a tax benefit is obviously a good thing, on its own. However, our data indicates that tax benefits can temporarily boost statutory profit in the year it is booked, but subsequently profit may fall back. In the likely event the tax benefit is not repeated, we'd expect to see its statutory profit levels drop, at least in the absence of strong growth. So while we think it's great to receive a tax benefit, it does tend to imply an increased risk that the statutory profit overstates the sustainable earnings power of the business.
Our Take On Saturn Oil & Gas' Profit Performance
While Saturn Oil & Gas' accrual ratio stands testament to its strong cashflow, and indicates good quality earnings, the fact that it received a tax benefit suggests that this year's profit may not be a great guide to its sustainable profit run-rate. Based on these factors, it's hard to tell if Saturn Oil & Gas' profits are a reasonable reflection of its underlying profitability. So if you'd like to dive deeper into this stock, it's crucial to consider any risks it's facing. To help with this, we've discovered 3 warning signs (1 doesn't sit too well with us!) that you ought to be aware of before buying any shares in Saturn Oil & Gas.
Our examination of Saturn Oil & Gas has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity , or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature.
We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice.
It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
