The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) is down by -0.46% today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is down by -0.68%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up by +0.03%. E-mini S&P futures (ESU26) are down -0.51%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU26) are up +0.03%.
Stocks are mixed today. The broader market is under pressure after a stronger-than-expected US jobs report bolstered speculation that the Fed will be forced to raise interest rates this year. August nonfarm payrolls rose much more than expected, and July payrolls were revised upward to show an increase, better than the original report of a decline. The chance for a Fed rate hike at this month's FOMC meeting jumped to 62% from 52% before the payroll report.
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On the positive side for equities, chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks have strengthened, pushing the Nasdaq 100 Index into positive territory.
US Aug nonfarm payrolls rose +162,000, stronger than expectations of +55,000 and the largest increase in 5 months. Also, July payrolls were revised upward to +21,000, stronger than the previously reported decline of -23,000. The Aug unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%, in line with expectations.
US Aug average hourly earnings rose +0.3% m/m and +3.1% y/y, right on expectations.
Oct WTI crude oil prices (CLV26) are moving lower today after Saudi Aramco kept the price of its Arab Light crude for October delivery to Asian customers unchanged, versus expectations of a $ 5-a-barrel increase. Crude prices rose to a 6-week high on Thursday amid signs of tighter global oil supplies. Data compiled by Bloomberg, Kpler and Vortexa showed that Saudi Arabia's Aug crude exports dropped to about 3 million bpd, the lowest amount in 9 years. Also, hostilities have escalated this week between the US and Iran, dampening hopes that the Strait of Hormuz will be fully reopened anytime soon.
Q2 earnings results are a bullish factor for stocks. The S&P 500 is tracking for earnings growth of almost +32% in Q2, well above projections of +23%, and nearly four times the average earnings growth rate outside of the Covid period since Q4 of 2013, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. AI spending is expected to account for most of earnings, with AI infrastructure stocks set to contribute nearly 60% of the S&P 500's earnings-per-share growth in Q2. So far, earnings results have been positive, with 86% of the 495 S&P 500 companies that have reported Q2 earnings beating estimates, according to Bloomberg data.
The markets are discounting a 62% chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on September 15-16.
Overseas stock markets are mixed today. The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.14%. China's Shanghai Composite fell to a 1-week low and closed down -0.30%. Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average closed up +1.26%.
Interest Rates
December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ6) are down by -2 ticks today. The 10-year T-note yield is up +0.6 bp to 4.774%. T-notes fell slightly today on the stronger-than-expected US Aug payroll report, which boosted the chances of a Fed rate hike at the Sep 15-16 FOMC meeting to 63% from 52% before the report.
Losses in T-notes are limited after Aug average hourly earnings rose as expected, showing wage pressures are contained. T-notes also have carryover support from Thursday, when Fed Governor Christopher Waller said underlying inflation is better than core numbers suggest and he will support keeping interest rates steady at this month's FOMC meeting if next week's inflation news shows "continued progress toward our 2% goal."
European government bond yields are mixed today. The 10-year German bund yield is down -1.0 bp to 3.333%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is up +0.2 bp to 5.136%.
Eurozone July retail sales unexpectedly fell by -0.6% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m and the biggest decline in two years.
German July factory orders rose +2.5% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m.
Markets are discounting a 99% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on September 10.
US Stock Movers
Chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks are climbing today, supporting gains in the broader market. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) is up +3%. SanDisk (SNDK) is up more than +8% to lead gainers in the S&P 500, and KLA Corp (KLAC) is up more than +7%. Also, Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX), Applied Materials (AMAT), ARM Holdings (ARM), Lam Research (LRCX), and Marvel Technology (MRVL) are up more than +4%, and ASML Holding NV (ASML), Micron Technology (MU), and Western Digital (WDC) are up more than +3%. In addition, Nvidia (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Intel (INTC) are up more than +2%, and Analog Devices (ADI) and Texas Instruments (TXN) are up more than +1%.
Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are falling today, with Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) down more than -3%. Circle Internet Group (CRCL) is down more than -5%, and Strategy (MSTR) and Coinbase Global (COIN) are down more than -4%. Also, Robinhood Markets (HOOD) and MARA Holdings (MARA) are down more than -2%, and Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) is down more than -1%.
Software stocks are under pressure today, weighing on the broader market. Adobe Systems (ADBE) and Autodesk (ADSK) are down more than -7%, and Thomson Reuters (TRI) is down more than -4%. Also, Workday (WDAY), ServiceNow (NOW), and Palantir Technologies (PLTR) are down more than -3%, and Salesforce (CRM) is down more than -2%. In addition, Atlassian Corp (TEAM) and Microsoft (MSFT) are down more than -1%.
Credit reporting agencies are falling today after US Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Pulte renewed criticism of the credit bureaus for overcharging Americans. Fair Isaac (FICO) is down more than -18%. Also, TransUnion (TRU) and Equifax (EFX) are down more than -8%.
Samsara (IOT) is up more than +4% after reporting Q2 revenue of $508.4 million, above the consensus of $483.4 million, and raising its 2027 revenue forecast to $2.04 billion to $2.05 billion from a previous estimate of $2.10 billion.
Guidewire Software (GWRE) is down more than -21% after forecasting Q1 total annual recurring revenue of $1.25 billion to $1.26 billion, below the consensus of $1.26 billion.
Lululemon Athletica (LULU) is down more than -18% to lead losers in the S&P 500after reporting Q2 net revenue of $2.42 billion, weaker than the consensus of $2.46 billion, and cutting its 2027 net revenue forecast to $10.35 billion to $10.50 billion from a previous forecast of $11.00 billion to $11.15 billion, well below the consensus of $11.03 billion.
Apple (AAPL) is down more than -2% to lead losers in the Dow Joens Industrials on reports of early negative feedback to the company's release of its new foldable phone, the iPhone Ultra.
Earnings Reports (9/4/2026)
BRT Apartments Corp (BRT) and Pro-Dex Inc (PDEX).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
