StubHub Stock Jumps After Citi Upgrade, But Shares Remain Well Below IPO Price

• Citi raised StubHub to Buy but lowered its price target to $7 from $9.

• The company delivered strong Q2 growth and raised its full-year GMS outlook, but the stock has continued to fall.

• Analysts remain divided as profitability, regulatory risks and growth concerns weigh on the stock.

StubHub Holdings (STUB) shares jumped about 3% in overnight trading late Thursday trading after Citi upgraded the stock.

The investment bank upgraded its rating on the ticketing marketplace to 'Buy' from 'Neutral', although it lowered the price target to $7 from $9.

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The upgrade comes as StubHub attempts to recover from a steep post-IPO decline that has left the stock trading at an all-time low of around $6, well below its $23.50 September 2025 IPO price.

Shares have fallen more than 75% from their opening price, reflecting concerns about growth, profitability, debt, and regulatory pressure on the ticket-resale industry.

Strong Q2 Results, But Concerns Remain

The company's second-quarter gross merchandise sales rose 34% to $3.1 billion, while revenue jumped 33% to $573.1 million. Adjusted EBITDA nearly doubled to $105.7 million, and the company posted net income of $14.6 million versus a $53.8 million loss a year earlier.

StubHub also raised its full-year GMS outlook to $10.1 billion-$10.3 billion and reiterated its adjusted EBITDA forecast of $400 million-$420 million.

However, investors have remained concerned about the quality and sustainability of that growth. The stock plunged after the Q2 as adjusted EPS came in around zero and expenses rose sharply.

Bank of America subsequently downgraded StubHub to 'Underperform' from 'Neutral' and cut its price target to $7.50 from $11, citing weaker expected second-half volumes, regulatory risks and difficult comparisons.

Analyst, Retail Remain Divided

Recent analyst calls have reflected the uncertainty. Guggenheim recently maintained a 'Neutral' rating while cutting its target to $7.50 from $9, citing a lower 2026 revenue outlook.

Currently, seven out of 14 analysts rate the stock 'Buy,' six rate it 'Hold,' and one rates it 'Strong Sell,' per Koyfin data. Their average price target of $11.29 implies an upside of 90%.

On Stocktwits, the retail sentiment was 'bearish' as of early Friday. "$STUB the support is in the lower 6's. Only up from here. If anything it could reach 6.15 but that's the worst case scenario," said a trader.