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TC Energy (TSX:TRP) has drawn investor attention after its share price closed at CA$86.15 on 18 August 2026. The stock is down about 10% over the past month.
See our latest analysis for TC Energy.
The recent 10.6% decline in TC Energy's 30 day share price return and the weaker 7 day move suggest fading short term momentum. This contrasts with the year to date share price return of 12.1% and 1 year total shareholder return of 24.8%, which point to a much stronger longer term picture supported by a 3 year total shareholder return above 100%.
If TC Energy's recent moves have you thinking about where else capital-intensive infrastructure could offer opportunities, consider widening your search using the 39 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks
After a sharp pullback but strong multi year gains, TC Energy now sits at an awkward middle ground. Does this recent weakness offer a reasonable entry today, or does waiting for a cheaper price make more sense, as discussed in the valuation section?
Most Popular Narrative: 12.8% Undervalued
Compared with TC Energy's last close at CA$86.15, the most followed narrative points to a higher fair value, built on detailed long term revenue and earnings assumptions.
Investors may be overestimating TC Energy's long-term revenue and EBITDA growth by assuming that the current surge in North American natural gas demand, driven by LNG export growth, coal-to-gas conversions, data center buildouts, and electrification, will persist at elevated rates, despite mounting global pressures for renewables and potential demand destruction for fossil fuels over the long run.
Read the complete narrative. Read the complete narrative.
There is a full earnings roadmap sitting behind that fair value for TC Energy. Revenue growth, margin rebuild, and a future earnings multiple all carry weight. Curious which of those levers does most of the heavy lifting in this narrative and how tightly they are calibrated.
Result: Fair Value of CA$98.78 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, TC Energy's story could change quickly if stricter climate policies lift regulatory and financing costs, or if long term gas demand softens and crimps pipeline utilization.
Find out about the key risks to this TC Energy narrative.
Another View On TC Energy's Valuation
The analyst narrative points to TC Energy as about 12.8% undervalued based on future earnings and a 22.5x P/E in 2029. Our SWS DCF model paints a very different picture and indicates fair value of CA$34.13, well below the current CA$86.15 share price. Which framework do you trust more for your own work on TC Energy?
Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day ( check out TC Energy for example ). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 13 high quality undervalued stocks . If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.
Next Steps
Mixed signals on TC Energy so far. If you want to move quickly and build your own view from the ground up, start by weighing its 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs
Looking for more investment ideas beyond TC Energy?
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Hunt for quality at a sensible price by filtering stocks that look attractively priced with the 13 high quality undervalued stocks .
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include TRP.TO .
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
