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It’s Time to Revisit The Nvidia Vs. AMD Debate

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Quick Read

  • AMD stock surged 164% year to date versus NVIDIA's 15%, even as NVIDIA posted $96B in revenue, up 106%, against AMD's $11.5B.

  • NVIDIA trades at 43 times earnings backed by 75% gross margins and $21B in quarterly free cash flow, while AMD trades at 213 times.

  • Lisa Su said Helios rack demand is "tracking ahead of our initial forecast," even as AMD's data center AI gross margin runs below the corporate average.

  • Just released. Our analysts combed the entire stock market and named the ten best stocks to buy right now, and NVIDIA didn't make the cut. Enter your email to see the names that beat NVDA. The report is free. Enter your email and see if any of your stocks made the cut.

NVIDIA( NASDAQ:NVDA ) and AMD( NASDAQ:AMD ) both beat expectations in their latest earnings reports. Both also say AI demand is running ahead of supply. NVIDIA posted revenue of $96.22B, up 105.8%. AMD delivered $11.54B, up 50.1%. Even so, AMD stock is up 164.48% year to date, while NVIDIA is up 14.83%. That gap traces back to how investors value each company's growth drivers.

Nvidia headquarters
wellesenterprises / iStock

Rubin Ramps at NVIDIA While AMD Readies Helios

NVIDIA's Data Center segment brought in $89.02B, up 117%. Networking alone reached $40.31B, up 138%. That tells me customers are buying entire AI factories, switches included. Vera Rubin began production shipments in August, but supply still limits growth. Jensen Huang said, "Even though our demand is much greater than 70%, our supply allows us to confidently deliver 70%."

AMD's Data Center sales rose 107% to $6.72B, which is now 58% of revenue. That shift in mix drove non-GAAP gross margin up to 56%. EPYC server chips set a record for the fifth straight quarter. Lisa Su said demand for Helios racks is "tracking ahead of our initial forecast." Gaming was the weak spot. It fell 31% to $779 million as the current console cycle ages.

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Business Driver

NVIDIA

AMD

Main Growth Engine

Blackwell Ultra, Vera Rubin

EPYC CPUs, Instinct GPUs

Marquee Commitment

AWS adding 2 million GPUs

Anthropic, up to 2 gigawatts

Non-GAAP Gross Margin

75.0%

56%

Weak Spot

No China in outlook

Gaming decline

Full-Stack Fortress Versus a Two-Engine Challenger

Huang brushed aside rivals' custom chips: "Many of these XPUs are inference-specific chips for one cloud or one service. NVIDIA is a platform." NVIDIA also puts its balance sheet to work. It has invested nearly $50 billion in advanced AI labs. Huang noted that critics call this "circular financing." I share some of that concern, because days sales outstanding extended to 60 days from 45.

AMD sells CPUs and GPUs side by side. It expects its data center segment to more than double in 2027. The company says Helios delivers up to 30% more tokens per dollar than the competition. One warning: CFO Jean Hu said data center AI gross margin stands slightly below the corporate average. That means faster GPU growth could slow further margin gains.

Memory Costs and Helios Yields Set the Next Round

NVIDIA forecast third-quarter revenue to $108 billion, with no China data center computing included. It expects gross margin to bottom at 71% to 72% in the fourth quarter as memory costs rise. NVIDIA also faces news of a competition probe. For AMD, I'm watching two things: whether Helios yields improve on schedule, and whether third-quarter revenue lands near the $13 billion guidance.

NVIDIA's Margins Versus AMD's Premium Valuation

NVIDIA trades at about 43 times earnings. AMD trades near 213, a price that assumes Helios comes through well before it ships in volume. Analysts did raise AMD's 2027 EPS consensus to $15.7629 from $13.4921 90 days ago.

NVIDIA's case rests on its 75.0% margins and $21.34B in quarterly free cash flow. AMD's case rests on executing a complex rack launch. A smooth Helios ramp, with margins holding at 56%, would improve AMD's case.

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