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Curious if Aris Mining is still offering value after a strong run, or if most of the upside is already reflected in the share price.
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The stock last closed at C$26.02, with returns of 17.8% over the past month, 20.1% year to date, and 241.5% over the last year, while the past week shows a 12.6% pullback.
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Recent share price moves sit against a backdrop of ongoing coverage of Aris Mining's operations and position in the metals and mining sector, which has kept investor attention on the name. These updates help frame changing expectations around both potential growth and risk.
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Aris Mining currently holds a value score of 3/6. This reflects that it screens as undervalued on half of the valuation checks, so it is worth looking at how different valuation methods stack up here and how an even richer way of thinking about value comes together at the end of this article.
Approach 1: Aris Mining Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a company could be worth today by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back to a present value using a required rate of return.
For Aris Mining, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach based on cash flow projections. The latest twelve month free cash flow sits at about $85.4 million. Analyst estimates and subsequent extrapolations suggest free cash flow rising to $1,583.9 million by 2030, using a series of annual projections between 2026 and 2035 that are discounted back to today.
Pulling these projections together, the DCF model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of $281.03 per share. Compared with the recent share price of C$26.02, this implies the stock screens as significantly undervalued, with the DCF output indicating a 90.7% discount.
Result: UNDERVALUED
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Aris Mining is undervalued by 90.7%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio , or discover 6 more high quality undervalued stocks .
Approach 2: Aris Mining Price vs Earnings
For profitable companies, the P/E ratio is a useful shorthand for how much investors are currently paying for each dollar of earnings. It links directly to what the business is earning today, which many investors find easier to relate to than long term forecasts alone.
What counts as a "normal" P/E often reflects two things: how quickly earnings are expected to grow and how much risk investors see in those earnings. Higher expected growth or lower perceived risk can justify a higher P/E, while slower growth or higher uncertainty usually points to a lower multiple.
Aris Mining currently trades on a P/E of 50.12x. This sits above the Metals and Mining industry average of 18.56x and also above the peer group average of 10.13x, so the shares are pricing in stronger earnings characteristics than those benchmarks suggest.
Simply Wall St's Fair Ratio for Aris Mining is 35.75x. This proprietary measure estimates what a reasonable P/E could be after accounting for factors such as earnings growth, risk profile, profit margins, industry and market cap, rather than relying only on simple peer or sector comparisons.
Comparing the Fair Ratio of 35.75x with the actual P/E of 50.12x, the shares screen as trading richer than what this framework would point to.
Result: OVERVALUED
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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Aris Mining Narrative
Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Narratives bring that to life by letting you pair a clear story about Aris Mining with concrete assumptions for future revenue, earnings and margins, link those assumptions to a Fair Value, then compare that to today's price using an easy tool on Simply Wall St's Community page that updates when new news or earnings arrive.
For Aris Mining, one investor might build a bullish Narrative around a Fair Value near CA$65.00 if they think higher gold prices and project ramp ups justify that view. Another might lean toward a Fair Value closer to CA$27.45 if they put more weight on execution and permitting risks. Seeing both side by side can help you decide whether the current price of about C$26.02 looks low, high or close to your own view before choosing whether to buy, hold or sell.
Do you think there's more to the story for Aris Mining? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include ARIS.TO .
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