Key Takeaways
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AppLovin closed up 31% on Thursday after a record quarter and Magnite rose as much as 17%, while The Trade Desk fell 3% ahead of its own report on Monday, Nov. 9.
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Magnite, Roku and Amazon all grew ad revenue, so a year-over-year revenue decline at Trade Desk would point to a problem of its own.
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Trade Desk guided third-quarter revenue to at least $650 million, about 12% below a year earlier, after existing clients spent less in the second quarter.
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The stock trades at about 14x forward earnings against a 49x five-year average, but 2026 earnings estimates are down 37% since June.
Ad tech had a big Thursday, and The Trade Desk ( TTD:NASDAQ )missed it. AppLovin ( APP:NASDAQ )closed up 31% after a record quarter , and Magnite ( MGNI:NASDAQ )rose as much as 17%. Trade Desk closed down 3%. The Nasdaq fell 5.5% that day after the midterms, so Trade Desk held up better than the market, just not better than its peers.
Roku ( ROKU:NASDAQ )grew its advertising revenue 23% in the third quarter, and Amazon ( AMZN:NASDAQ ), whose DSP chases the same brand budgets, grew ad sales 12% excluding currency. So the question for Monday: Is any of that money reaching Trade Desk?
Analysts Already Expect a Shrinking Year at Trade Desk
The consensus has revenue falling to $2.75 billion this year from $2.90 billion in 2025, then to $2.60 billion in 2027 before it grows again in 2028:
Growth has slowed every quarter since revenue rose 18% in the third quarter of 2025:
Second-quarter revenue rose just 3% to $715 million, and the third-quarter guide of at least $650 million sits 12% below the $739 million of a year earlier.
Management blames much of that on consumer-goods and auto advertisers, about a quarter of the business. But its second-quarter 10-Q also says existing clients spent less, and new clients carried the gain. That's the part that worries me.
The Ad Money Is Out There
AppLovin's 55% growth, to $2.18 billion, says the least about Trade Desk, since its ads run mostly inside mobile apps, especially games. Magnite and Roku are better reads, because video is about half of what clients buy through Trade Desk. Magnite's connected-TV contribution ex-TAC rose 39% , and CEO Michael Barrett now expects full-year political spend to be "nearly three times our initial forecast." More than 80% of Roku's in-stream video ad impressions were bought programmatically , the way Trade Desk's clients buy.
Amazon grew ad sales even though Prime Day moved into the second quarter, and it guided fourth-quarter ad growth to the high teens . Amazon doesn't break out its DSP, so that alone can't prove a share shift.
TIKR Tracks 36 Analysts on The Trade Desk. How Many Say "Buy"?
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What Trade Desk's Fourth-Quarter Guide Has to Show
If the third quarter lands at the $650 million floor, full-year consensus implies about $699 million for the fourth, 17.5% below last year's $847 million. A guide at or above that would hold up consensus but wouldn't show whether the slump is sector pressure or lost share. Below it, estimates likely fall again.
On the third-quarter guide, costs excluding stock pay, depreciation and amortization come to about $490 million, up from about $422 million a year earlier. That guide predates the 15% staff cut announced on Sept. 3, so the savings should show up in the fourth-quarter outlook.
Cheap, With a Catch
Trade Desk trades at about 14x forward earnings, well under its 49x five-year average and near its 8.6x July low:
The catch: analysts have cut their 2026 earnings estimate by 37% since June 30, so 14x buys far less profit than in the summer.
With Magnite, Roku and Amazon all growing, Trade Desk's shrinking spend from existing clients looks like lost share to me, not a weak market. I'd call 14x fair until management guides the fourth quarter at or above about $699 million and says existing clients are spending again.
So What Is The Trade Desk Stock Actually Worth?
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