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Trainline's modeled fair value is held at £3.55, while external price targets are clustering between £2.35 and £3.50, including one reset from £5.00 to £3.50 and another move from £3.10 to £2.90. Those shifts capture the current split between analysts who still back higher targets around £3.50 and £2.90 and others who lean toward a more cautious £2.35, reflecting different views on how much future execution is already priced in. Read on to see what these changing targets may mean for you and how to track the story as it develops.
Stay updated as the Fair Value for Trainline shifts by adding it to your watchlist or portfolio . Alternatively, explore our Community to discover new perspectives on Trainline.
What Wall Street Has Been Saying
🐂 Bullish Takeaways
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Berenberg cut its Trainline price target to 350 GBp from 500 GBp, yet still keeps a Buy rating, which signals that the firm continues to see upside potential at current levels.
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Morgan Stanley trims its target to 290 GBp from 310 GBp and maintains an Overweight rating, suggesting confidence in Trainline's ability to execute against its plan despite a more measured valuation stance.
🐻 Bearish Takeaways
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JPMorgan recently set a 235 GBp target, adjusted from 215 GBp, alongside an Underweight rating, pointing to concerns about how much of Trainline's growth story is already reflected in the share price.
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Across these firms, the mix of Buy, Overweight and Underweight views highlights ongoing questions about execution risk and how investors should price Trainline's longer term growth prospects.
Do your thoughts align with the Bull or Bear Analysts? Perhaps you think there's more to the story. Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives!
How This Changes the Fair Value For Trainline
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Fair value remains modelled at £3.55, with no revision to the central valuation output.
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Revenue growth assumption is effectively unchanged at about 2.36%, with only a minor numerical adjustment.
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Net profit margin assumption remains around 15.42%, with no meaningful directional shift.
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Future P/E multiple moves slightly from 25.71x to 25.60x, reflecting a very small change.
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Discount rate edges down from 9.28% to 9.12%, representing a modest reduction in the required return used in the model.
Never Miss an Update: Follow The Narrative
Narratives connect Trainline's business story to the forecasts and fair value behind the numbers. This helps you see what assumptions sit under the headline targets. They update automatically when new forecasts, risks, or company developments are added.
Head over to the Simply Wall St Community and follow the Narrative on Trainline to stay up to date on:
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How EU third party ticket retail growth and rising carrier competition in Spain and Italy feed into expectations for higher passenger volumes and net ticket sales.
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The role of U.K. e-ticket adoption, cost optimisation and ancillary services like hotels and travel insurance in shaping margin and cash flow assumptions.
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Key risks such as Project Oval in the U.K., changes to Google search presentation, paused brand marketing in France and shifts in U.K. commission and regulation that could challenge this view.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include TRN.L .
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