United Airlines Holdings, Inc. UAL enters the fourth quarter with revenue momentum accelerating even as fuel costs remain a major earnings risk. The airline expects fourth-quarter revenues to rise more than 20% year over year after third-quarter operating revenues increased 17.4% to $17.88 billion.
The question is whether faster sales growth can translate into better profitability. Third-quarter adjusted earnings fell 8.6% to $2.54 per share, while adjusted pre-tax margin narrowed to 6.2% from 8% a year earlier.
UAL's Q4 Revenue Outlook Raises the Bar
United expects fourth-quarter revenue growth to accelerate from the third quarter and exceed 20% year over year. Management also expects unit revenue growth to accelerate, extending a quarter in which total revenue per available seat mile increased 15.9%.
United Airlines Holdings Inc Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth)
United Airlines Holdings Inc revenue-quarterly-yoy-growth | United Airlines Holdings Inc Quote
The third-quarter gains were broad. Passenger revenues rose 17.6%, while domestic passenger revenues increased 19.9% and international passenger revenues advanced 14.3%. That gives UAL a sizable top-line base heading into the final quarter.
Fuel at $4.80 Keeps UAL Earnings Exposed
United's fourth-quarter outlook assumes an all-in average fuel price of about $4.80 per gallon. The company estimates that every one-cent change in fuel prices affects quarterly earnings by roughly 2.5 cents per share, leaving results highly sensitive to further moves in jet fuel.
Fuel pressure is not unique to United. Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) reported a 62% year-over-year increase in adjusted fuel expense for the September quarter and projected a fourth-quarter all-in fuel price of about $4.25 per gallon. American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) said its third-quarter fuel expense increased 67.5% year over year, underscoring the industrywide cost challenge.
UAL Unit Costs May Ease After a Tough Third Quarter
United's cost base also remains elevated outside fuel. Cost per available seat mile excluding fuel, profit sharing, special items and third-party business expenses increased 7.8% year over year in the third quarter, while salaries and related costs rose 8.9%.
Management expects fourth-quarter unit-cost growth excluding fuel to step down from the third-quarter pace. That moderation would be important because operating expenses increased 18.8% in the third quarter, faster than revenue growth.
Premium and Loyalty Demand Strengthen UAL's Revenue Mix
Higher-value demand remains a key support. Premium revenues increased 17% year over year in the third quarter, loyalty revenues rose 17% and contracted business revenues advanced 26%.
Economy cabin unit revenues also increased 17%, while United carried a record 49.5 million customers during the quarter. This mix gives the airline several revenue streams that could help offset part of the pressure from higher fuel and labor costs.
UAL's Q4 Setup Still Carries a Cautious Signal
United's fourth-quarter setup combines accelerating revenues with unusually high fuel sensitivity and still-elevated nonfuel costs. Adjusted earnings guidance of 50 cents to $1.50 per share shows how much uncertainty remains even with revenue growth expected to exceed 20%.
UAL currently carries a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), pointing to an unfavorable near-term earnings-revision backdrop. The stock has a Value Score of B, but its Growth Score of C, Momentum Score of D and VGM Score of C are less supportive. Taken together, the indicators favor caution while investors watch whether stronger revenues can produce better earnings and margin conversion. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
