Firefly Aerospace stock moves after AST SpaceMobile engine deal
Firefly Aerospace (FLY) stock is in focus after the company signed a more than US$1.3 billion, three-year engine supply and licensing agreement with AST SpaceMobile for a planned heavy-lift rocket program.
Firefly Aerospace has been volatile, with a 36.80% 1 day share price return and a 15.75% 7 day share price return after the AST SpaceMobile deal. However, the 90 day share price return is down 22.28% and the year to date share price return is down 12.63%, while the 1 year total shareholder return of 5.17% shows longer term holders have fared better than recent traders.
Scan how the AST SpaceMobile deal fits into a wider space and defense trend by comparing Firefly Aerospace with a curated set of 19 high quality undiscovered gems .
After a sharp jump on the AST SpaceMobile news, the puzzle for Firefly Aerospace holders is simple. Is this just the first leg of the rerating, or has most of the upside already been priced in?
Most Popular Narrative: 43% Undervalued
On the most followed view, Firefly Aerospace's fair value of $36.64 sits well above the latest close of $20.76, which puts the current rally in a different light for anyone weighing the AST SpaceMobile engine deal against longer term drivers.
A growing focus on national security space and missile defense, including the planned US$175b Golden Dome program, positions Firefly's Alpha, Elytra and SciTec software to compete across launch, space interceptors and fire control, which can influence long term revenue visibility and backlog conversion.
See why 47 investors see Firefly Aerospace as 43% undervalued .
Analysts building this narrative use a 7.9% discount rate and arrive at that $36.64 fair value by projecting what Firefly Aerospace might earn if margins eventually resemble the broader US Aerospace & Defense sector. Their work ties the upside case to programs like Golden Dome, NASA's lunar contracts and Elytra missions that could shift the mix toward higher value missions and software backed services.
Sense checking that view means deciding how comfortable you are with the required step change. The narrative leans on Firefly Aerospace moving from a reported net loss of $370.4 million on $287.0 million of revenue to potential earnings of $115.6 million by around 2029, and then trading on a future P/E multiple of 77.4x that is well above the current 32.1x industry level. It also bakes in continued revenue expansion, with analysts in that framework assuming roughly 60.9% annual growth over the next three years and dilution from share count rising a little over 5% per year.
None of that removes the risk that Firefly Aerospace remains unprofitable for several more years, which is exactly what the consensus models flag. The same storyline that supports the fair value also highlights execution questions around launch reliability, Blue Ghost mission timing, SciTec integration and heavy exposure to US government and Golden Dome funding, where budget shifts or delays could slow backlog conversion and keep cash burn elevated.
Result: Fair Value of $36.64 (UNDERVALUED)
Still, Firefly Aerospace relies heavily on US government and Golden Dome programs, and continued operating losses mean any delay or setback could quickly reshape that potential upside story.
Find out about the key risks to this Firefly Aerospace narrative .
Another View: Firefly Aerospace looks expensive on sales
On the flip side of that fair value story, Firefly Aerospace trades on a P/S ratio of 12.1x compared with 3.7x for the wider US Aerospace & Defense group and 2.5x across peers, while the fair ratio is 4.5x, which raises a simple question for holders. Is this pricing a cushion or a cliff?
Our own revenue based work flags how stretched that sales multiple is compared with both the sector and the fair ratio the market could move toward over time. It is worth asking how much short term disappointment this valuation can absorb before that gap starts to close. See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
Next Steps
Mixed signals around Firefly Aerospace can make it hard to know which story to back, so move fast and weigh the evidence yourself using 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs .
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This article is general in nature and was produced with the assistance of AI automation, based on data and analysis from Simply Wall St. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include FLY .
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