A crypto analyst best known for warning that the 2021 bull market was running out of steam says Bitcoin may already be in another reset phase and that the current sense of market apathy looks uncomfortably familiar.
Into The Cryptoverse founder Benjamin Cowen argues that fading momentum, macro pressure and long-term cycle behavior suggest Bitcoin's latest rally may have already peaked, even if prices remain well above prior cycle lows.
Related: Legendary hedge fund analyst warns Bitcoin is heading towards 1929-style crash
A familiar warning from a proven bear-market voice
In a recent strategy session shared with his YouTube audience, Cowen said investor psychology has shifted toward acceptance rather than excitement, a pattern he associates with the early stages of a bear market.
"It's one of those times where apathy really starts to set in," Cowen said. "More and more people start to accept the idea of a bear market."
Cowen added that midterm years have historically been difficult for risk assets, including crypto, and said there is little reason to assume this cycle will behave differently.
"If this does take a year like normal, why would we expect anything different until October of 2026?" he said.
While Cowen acknowledged the possibility of shorter-term rallies, he stressed that downturns are not anomalies in crypto markets, they are structural features of the cycle.
"It's not our first bear market. It certainly won't be our last bear market," Cowen said. "Trade the market you have, not the market that you want."
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Why this cycle looks uncomfortably similar to late 2021
Cowen's warning carries extra weight because of how closely it mirrors his stance ahead of the 2021–2022 crypto crash.
In the final months of 2021, as Bitcoin traded near its then-record high of around $69,000, Cowen repeatedly warned that the crypto market had entered a high-risk zone, pointing to tightening Federal Reserve policy, overheated altcoin valuations, and excessive speculative leverage.
What followed was one of crypto's steepest drawdowns: Bitcoin fell roughly 78% to near $15,000, Ether dropped about 80%, and many altcoins lost 90% to 99% of their value.
Cowen's thesis rests on the same signals he cited ahead of Bitcoin's collapse . Weakening momentum, cooling interest, and tightening macro conditions.
He has repeatedly pushed back on claims that "this time is different," arguing that Bitcoin continues to follow its long-observed four-year cycle.
Related: Bernstein reveals new Bitcoin target amid market pullback
In previous cycles, major highs were followed by prolonged periods of consolidation and drawdowns during the following year, a pattern Cowen says remains intact.
Macro conditions, he added, are also working against speculative assets. With interest rates remaining elevated and no aggressive expansion of central bank balance sheets, liquidity conditions resemble past periods when Bitcoin struggled to sustain upside momentum.
$60K-$70K level that has traders paying attention to
From a technical perspective, Cowen pointed to Bitcoin's 200-week moving average as a key long-term reference.
Based on that metric, he said a pullback into the $60,000 to $70,000 range by summer would align with historical cycle behavior rather than signal a breakdown of Bitcoin's long-term thesis.
Crucially, Cowen argues that the most meaningful gains are rarely made at euphoric highs.
"All the money is actually made in the bear markets," he said, pointing to late 2022 buyers - not those who bought near record highs - as this cycle's real winners.
Related: Mysterious traders are selling ahead of Trump's 9PM address to the nation
Bitcoin (BTC) traded around $87,542 at press time, up about 1.2% in the past 24 hours.
This story was originally published by TheStreet on Dec 18, 2025, where it first appeared in the Trading News & Analysis section. Add TheStreet as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
