Market analyst and Into The Cryptoverse founder Benjamin Cowen said he expects Bitcoin (BTC) to continue trending lower before entering its next bullish phase.
Speaking with TheStreet Roundtable host Scott Melker, Cowen described the current environment as a "slow bleed," suggesting that the cryptocurrency could remain range-bound until macro liquidity returns.
"I do think Bitcoin will go back to $110k. I just don't think it's going to happen right now. I think we're kind of in a slow bleed right now, waiting for liquidity. So yeah, if it wants to prove me wrong, I think we need to rally back over the 50-week moving average,"Cowen said.
Cowen added that Bitcoin would need to reclaim key technical levels to confirm a broader reversal.
Specifically, he noted that "two to three weekly closes above the 50-week moving average" would make him reconsider his bearish outlook.
Cowen also said he remains partially allocated to BTC to avoid emotional trading decisions.
"If we get a counter-trend rally, let's say to $100K… by owning some, I'm not completely sidelined," he said. "It helps calm the emotions — to not be 100% deterministic about any one idea."
Related: Cathie Wood predicts 2026 revised outlook
2026 could mark the next bottom
Rather than targeting specific price levels, Cowen said his approach to buying Bitcoin during downturns is time-based, aligning with the cryptocurrency's historical four-year cycle.
According to him, Bitcoin's "winning strategy" has been to buy near the end of the midterm year and sell during the post-halving year's fourth quarter, a pattern observed across the last three market cycles.
"If you bought it at the end of 2014 and sold in Q4 2017, then bought at the end of 2018 and sold at the end of 2021, you would've made the most money,"Cowen explained.
He believes the same logic applies to the current cycle, implying that the next accumulation window could arrive in late 2026.
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Cowen refrained from making explicit price predictions, citing the backlash analysts face when they are wrong by even small margins.
"Price predictions are really, really hard because...if it's $1 too high, everyone will hate you because they were waiting on that. If you predict it too low, people will sell and then they'll hate you because they continue to rally beyond it,"he said.
Instead, Cowen focuses on market direction and broader liquidity trends.
"Right now, the wind is blowing more in the bearish direction, but by Q4 [2026], I think the winds will change."
At press time, Bitcoin trades near $93,080.84, as per CoinGecko.
Related: BlackRock shares 2026 shocking crypto outlook
This story was originally published by TheStreet on Jan 19, 2026, where it first appeared in the MARKETS section. Add TheStreet as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
