Bitcoin is currently caught in what traders describe as a "slow crash."
After reaching a record high of $126,272 in October 2025, the world's largest digital asset has been steadily declining. This is not the kind of sudden collapse seen during the FTX or Luna crises, but rather a gradual slide that has pushed the price toward the $65,000 level.
Technical charts now show a textbook "death cross" forming.
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Understanding the death cross
A "death cross" is a chart pattern that reflects recent price weakness. It occurs when a short-term moving average falls below a longer-term moving average.
Specifically, the pattern appears when the 50-day moving average drops below the 200-day moving average, indicating that short-term momentum has weakened relative to the broader trend.
Prominent crypto trader and analyst Leviathan warned that Bitcoin has "just printed" what he called a "textbook death cross."
"EVERY SINGLE TIME THIS PATTERN FLASHES -> MORE DOWNSIDE," Leviathan wrote . "THIS IS THE FINAL BULL TRAP OF THIS CYCLE."
In the same post, he also pointed to prior cycles:
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2019: Bitcoin fell 49.8% over 167 days
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2022: Bitcoin fell 49.5% over 314 days
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2026: "...?"
Historically, death crosses have preceded major bear markets in traditional finance, including downturns in 1929, 1938, 1974 and 2008. However, the signal is widely considered lagging, meaning it confirms an existing decline rather than predicting a new one.
Importantly, death crosses do not always result in extended losses. In previous crypto cycles , Bitcoin formed local bottoms shortly before or around the appearance of the pattern, including in September 2023, August 2024 and April 2025.
Bitcoin is currently down roughly 25% from its Oct. 6, 2025 all-time high. The decline accelerated after a broader selloff in technology stocks triggered risk reduction across crypto markets.
Trending on TheStreet Roundtable:
Middle East tensions add complexity
Technical signals are unfolding alongside rising geopolitical risk.
After joint US–Israeli strikes on Iranian targets, markets are now grappling with the possibility of a prolonged regional conflict.
(Photo credit: Getty)
David Brickell and Chris Mills of the London Crypto Club described the conflict as a potential catalyst for Bitcoin.
"This might finally be the 'narrative catalyst' Bitcoin has been waiting for."
The analysts outlined two scenarios.
A prolonged war could trigger an "extreme risk-off scenario" with investors hedging against instability. Alternatively, a swift diplomatic resolution could spark a relief rally.
In both cases, they argue liquidity is the key variable.
"Markets remain always a function of rates and liquidity," they wrote. "We maintain the view that risk sell-offs on war are typically very short lived as it leads to more debt creation and larger deficits, necessitating ever more liquidity."
Related: Iran's Hormuz shutdown puts major economies at risk
Arthur Hayes says watch the Fed
Arthur Hayes, chief investment officer of Maelstrom, takes a similar macro view.
In his Mar. 2 blog , Hayes argued that major U.S. military engagements have historically coincide with looser monetary policy, as the Federal Reserve supports government spending and economic stability.
"The longer Trump engages in the extremely costly activity of Iranian nation-building, the higher the likelihood the Fed lowers the price and increases the quantity of money," Hayes wrote.
For Hayes, the key trigger is policy response.
"The time to back up the truck and buy Bitcoin and high-quality shitcoins like $HYPE is immediately after the Fed cuts rates and or prints money to support the government's goals in Iran."
For now, traders are navigating a bearish technical setup alongside a macro narrative that may ultimately depend on central bank liquidity.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $68,082, down 1.23% over the past 24 hours.
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This story was originally published by TheStreet on Mar 3, 2026, where it first appeared in the MARKETS section. Add TheStreet as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
