Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has sent a harsh warning about the dangers posed by quantum computing to the crypto economy.
"Seemingly,"there is a 20% chance of quantum computers breaking modern cryptography before the end of 2030, Buterin warned. He made the observation during an online exchange with Ian Miers, Assistant Professor of Computer Science at the University of Maryland, on X on Aug. 27.
Quantum computing and crypto
Cryptocurrencies are digital currencies that deploy cryptographic functions to encrypt all the financial details to ensure the integrity and security of funds. This way, nobody other than the individuals sending and receiving crypto assets can gain access to any sensitive financial data.
Related: What is Crypto? Cryptocurrency explained
It is estimated that even the latest, most powerful supercomputers will take thousands of years to decrypt crypto proofs. But there is a deep-seated fear within the crypto community that quantum computers will be able to violate crypto security within seconds.
While the computers we work on use binary electrical signals to represent ones or zeros, quantum computers employ quantum bits (qubits), which are subatomic particles.
When optimized, qubits can simultaneously represent combinations of both ones and zeros. The more qubits, the greater the potential for large-scale compute power for problem-solving.
The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) mathematician Peter Shor developed the first well-known quantum algorithm for breaking encryption in the 1990s.
When quantum computing truly arrives on its own, there is a fear of it seriously disrupting the cryptocurrency infrastructure.
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Quantum computers could break cryptography by 2030, Buterin warns
Miers opined that STARK or hash-based cryptographic proof implementations aren't usually zero-knowledge.
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STARK cryptographic proofs are considered to be quantum-resistant, i.e., safe from any quantum attacks in the future.
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A zero-knowledge proof lets you prove any information without revealing the underlying data.
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Adding ZK to STARK can slow down its efficiency, and the process also involves engineering complexity, Miers said.
Buterin agreed with Miers about the cost of complexity.
In addition, most current use cases of cryptography don't require privacy, he added.
But the threat of quantum computing will require developers to pivot to STARK proofs for privacy reasons, he warned, and added that STARK anyway has a lot of advantages.
Miers argued the lack of market would prevent any such switch.
In fact, quantum wouldn't require such a change as non-STARK post-quantum (PQ) ZK proofs like Ligero, Groth16, etc. are available, he said.
So, there is no need to worry, as the quantum computers that can break cryptography are 50 years away, he assured
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Buterin then pulled up data from the online forecasting platform, Metaculus, as per which the median date when quantum computers will be able to break modern cryptography is 2040.
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"Seemingly about a 20% chance it will be before end of 2030,"he added.
Market estimates for post-quantum crypto guided by incentives, Miers claims
Miers said that in such a case, Buterin's concern should be the "soundness"of the proof system, rather than "some future attacker 'decrypting' past transactions."
There is an incentive for STARK to embrace ZK, given that they are competing with PQ proof systems, he said.
He also opined that market estimates for the need for PQ crypto have an incentive problem because few experts will say that quantum computing is still years away because the hype for it brings money.
Besides, PQ upgrades to infrastructures like TLS, the protocol that secures the web, are cheap. But the same PQ upgrade to Bitcoin would be a different cost, he emphasized.
This story was originally reported by TheStreet on Aug 28, 2025, where it first appeared in the Innovation section. Add TheStreet as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
