This article first appeared on GuruFocus .
Meituan ( MPNGY ) is stepping into earnings day with an investor base that feels increasingly on edge. Analysts expect a 14.8 billion yuan net loss for the September quarter, marking what could be the company's first quarterly setback in nearly three years. The stock has fallen more than 30% this year, pulling it to the bottom of the Hang Seng Tech Index, and sentiment has been softening for months as the delivery price war continues to bite. Morningstar's Chelsey Tam suggested Meituan might still be the long-term leader, but the market's focus has shifted to the near-term reality: projected delivery-segment losses, heightened competitive pressure from Alibaba, and a narrative where rivals enjoy valuation support from themes Meituan does not yet benefit from.
The competitive landscape inside China is turning into a slow grind. Morningstar expects Meituan's share of on-demand delivery gross transaction value to drop from 73% in 2024 to 55% by 2027, while Alibaba's could climb from 21% to 40%, and JD.com's share may edge slightly higher from its current 6%. JD.com's formal move into food delivery in February, backed by aggressive discounting, has intensified the drag on profitability across the sector. The impact shows up in the numbers: Meituan's consensus rating hit a record low last month, and the average analyst price target has fallen 40% since March. Yet speculative energy remains alive, with more than 2 million outstanding options heading into Thursday's expiration and short interest near a five-year high, a setup that could possibly produce pockets of sharp volatility.
At the same time, Meituan is pushing beyond China's borders, rolling out its Keeta delivery app this year in Brazil, Qatar, Kuwait, and the UAE. Media reports now hint at a possible India entry, a move Bernstein analysts Jignanshu Gor and Robin Zhu described as strategically understandable but potentially costly and time-intensive at a moment when the domestic battle still demands attention. They wrote that the overseas push almost feels like an acknowledgment that defending home share has become more complicated. With price wars squeezing margins, rivals scaling fast, and new markets requiring investment before returns materialize, investors are heading into Friday's results looking for any signal that Meituan can stabilize the narrative before the pressure deepens further.
