Traders at Polymarket, a prediction market, do not think MicroStrategy will go bankrupt anytime soon. They assign the company a 2% chance of going out of business by May 31, 2025. More than $418,000 has been wagered on this question thus far.

Back in December, the odds were slightly higher—above 8%—but confidence has increased over the last few months. That is probably because Bitcoin prices have been steadier, recently hovering above $81,025.90, and investors feel more optimistic overall.

MicroStrategy is famous for purchasing millions of Bitcoins. As of Apr 1, the company held 528,185 Bitcoins , which it bought at an average price of around $66,385 each — a total investment of more than $33 billion. The company's strategy is risky: If the price of Bitcoin falls too much, it could lose a lot of money.

However, despite an eye-watering $5.9 billion unrealized loss under new fair-value accounting rules as of Apr 7, MicroStrategy is showing no sign of retreat from its '21/21' plan. MicroStrategy borrowed to buy Bitcoin and would not automatically default on its debt even if its holdings are underwater as long as it services its obligations (pays interest and principal in time).

The company has flowed in and out of capital markets under financial pressure and has secured $7.69 billion in share offerings the quarter.