The next tax filing season in the U.S. might not be so bad, after all.
In a recent appearance on NBC10 Philadelphia , Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said American households are going to receive "very large refunds" during the next tax filing season.
All thanks to the retroactive policy changes introduced under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) in July.
The anticipated refunds, which could total between $100 billion and $150 billion, are drawing attention not only from consumers but also from market watchers assessing the potential impact on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
"The bill was passed in July. Working Americans didn't change their withholding, so they're going to be getting very large refunds in the first quarter," Bessent said. "I think we're going to see $100 [billion]-$150 billion of refunds, which could be between $1,000 and $2,000 per household."
Bessent's remarks come at a time when the Trump administration is framing tax relief as a cornerstone of its affordability and growth program.
Related: Crypto tax expert warns traders to 'fix your past' ahead of new IRS rule
What is the One Big Beautiful Bill Act?
Passed in July, the OBBBA is a sweeping tax and economic package that consolidates multiple household-focused measures into a single law.
In simple terms, the law:
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Eliminates federal taxes on tips
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Eliminates federal taxes on overtime pay
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Adjusts withholding rules retroactively for the current tax year
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Includes other household-focused tax relief measures tied to wages
Since the law took effect midway through the year, most workers continued to have taxes withheld under old rules, resulting in higher-than-expected refunds when they filed.
OBBBA's main impact is liquidity. This means many Americans who paid taxes during the year will receive unusually large refunds when they file. Those refunds inject fresh, spendable cash into the economy, affecting cash flow and market behavior without changing tax rules or regulations.
Large refunds have the following benefits:
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Ease household balance sheets
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Support consumer spending
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Increase flows into risk assets, including crypto.
In addition to introducing new relief, the OBBBA extends lower tax rates and higher standard deductions originally enacted under the 2017 Trump tax cuts, which were set to expire at the end of this year. Without the extension, taxpayers would have faced a de facto tax increase in 2026.
President Donald Trump said earlier this month that the upcoming filing season is "projected to be the largest tax refund season ever."
Large refunds matter to American households
According to the latest IRS data, during the 2025 tax filing season, the agency issued more than $211 billion in refunds, with an average refund of $3,116.
Large refunds can have a meaningful impact on household finances, particularly in an environment where inflation and borrowing costs have strained budgets.
Supporters of the OBBBA argue that an even larger refund cycle could further strengthen balance sheets and spending power.
ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood recently said the tax relief embedded in the bill could significantly lift disposable personal income.
"So you can see the impact on income levels here," Wood said.
She pointed to internal estimates showing nominal disposable personal income growth accelerating from a projected 4% annualized rate to roughly 10% with tax relief.
"It looks like that's going to be with tax relief, roughly 8% at an annual rate. That's a very large break. That's a very large increase in income. And so we think entering the year, the consumer will have more spending power."
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Crypto taxes remain complex
For crypto investors, the size and timing of refunds matter because digital assets remain subject to a complex tax framework.
The Internal Revenue Service classifies crypto as property, not currency. Most crypto transactions trigger capital gains taxes , including selling crypto for cash, swapping one token for another, or using crypto to purchase goods and services.
Assets held for one year or less are subject to short-term capital gains,taxed at ordinary income rates ranging from 10% to 37%.
Assets held longer than a year qualify for long-term capital gains ratesof 0%, 15%, or 20%, depending on income.
Additional levies, such as the 3.8% Net Investment Income Tax, may apply to higher earners.
Crypto earned through mining, staking , airdrops, or payments is generally taxed as ordinary income at fair market value when received.
States also impose taxes on crypto gains.
Jurisdictions with the highest combined tax burdens include California, New York, New Jersey, and Hawaii, where state income taxes can exceed 10%.
By contrast, Alaska, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, and Wyoming levy no state income tax, making them more favorable for digital-asset investors.
Does the OBBBA help crypto traders?
While the OBBBA does not change crypto tax rules, its impact on liquidity could still matter for digital-asset markets.
Larger refunds can give investors more flexibility to pay capital gains taxes without selling crypto, re-enter positions after tax season, and allocate surplus cash into risk assets.
Crypto trader and analyst Merljin The Trader wrote in a Dec. 17 post that the refunds represent a "pre-programmed stimulus" moment for markets.
"$150 billion in tax refunds hitting the economy in 2026… History is crystal clear: Every major crypto bull run was fueled by fresh money entering the system,"the analyst said.
The analyst pointed out the current macro sentiments that create supportive "tailwinds."
Large inflows are already locked into spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs , he underlined. There are expectations of a Federal Reserve easing cycle, growing institutional accumulation, and expanding real-world asset (RWA) tokenization, he added.
"The $150B isn't speculation. It's scheduled. Front-run the wave. Or wait for the herd to push prices vertical. Your conviction gets tested now. Not when the money lands. The sale ends when the refunds hit. Position while it's quiet."
For crypto traders, the bill may not rewrite the tax code, but it could reshape the cash flows that drive markets.
Related: Crypto czar says Biden's 'bad' Bitcoin policy cost tax payers $17 billion
This story was originally published by TheStreet on Dec 16, 2025, where it first appeared in the Policy section. Add TheStreet as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
